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DMINews -- November 2007
Topics: • Federal Reserve Developments and Macroeconomic Forecasts • Developing School District Demographic Estimates and Projections • "How-to" Build Your Own GeoDemographic Information System • Census 2010 LUCA Program • Interactive Demographic-Economic Ranking Tables • Updates on Census 2010 Budget, Operation and Costs Federal Reserve Developments and Macroeconomic Forecasts Implementing effective U.S. fiscal and monetary policy requires knowing the impact of these actions in the foreseeable future. Generally, this has been guarded information. With little known about the expected future of the economy, businesses, state and local governments, and others are handicapped in understanding where, when and how the economy might change. Decision-making information is restricted and not as complete as it might be. In mid-November, Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke announced plans to "increase transparency" and extend/enhance Federal Reserve frequency of forecast updates, content of forecasts, and term of forecasts. See details here and here. This important action is a step in the right direction to provide better access to the Fed’s modeling system and results and at the same time improve the scope in several notable ways. It remains that this action falls many steps short of access to a cause and effect modeling system that could be used in alternative ‘what-if’ scenarios. A next step is make the relevant modeling system(s) available. While actual policy formulation uses many data driven models and other non-model-based inputs, access to the same fundamental toolset could result in our ability to do a better job of seeing how, where and when the economy is changing. Will this be a step in that direction? Cautious optimism. The Fed’s Economic Research & Data Web page presently only provides access to traditional Federal Reserve economic indicators. There is little presently available relating to the types of forecasting infrastructure outlined in the newly announced program. Should our company expand or reduce operations in certain plants? Where and when should new operations be developed? These decisions require far more detail than provided by the Fed's statistical programs. But, they are highly related. In an upcoming DMINews, availability of these U.S.-level more frequent, detailed, and transparent estimates and forecasts will be tied to related developments at the metro level and associated with MetroDynamics and MetroGDP. Developing School District Demographic Estimates and Projections Like macroeconomic forecasts for the U.S. economy, accurate projections of school district demographics are essential for many reasons. They form the basis for planning the infrastructure to meet the needs of educational programs. While many school districts develop some type of annually updated demographic estimates and projections, projections are developed with wide-ranging methods and have wide-ranging quality. In addition, the projections have been typically developed as a part of a commissioned study. How will the changing number of school age children relate to the size and make-up of the school district community? What will be the size and impact of school age children not enrolled in school? Most school districts of moderate to larger population size will experience a substantial increase in enrollment starting in the period 2012 to 2017. An echo result of the baby boom, how will this change affect your school district(s) of interest? The School District Demographic Estimates and Projections (SDDEP -- http://proximityone.com/sddep.htm) is an integrated software and database application designed to produce annual demographic estimates and projections for the period 2000 through 2017. Historical annual trend data are included for the period 2000 through 2007 with 10-year annual projections starting with 2008. Install SDDEP on your computer. The SDDEP semi-standardized model uses a census block building-block approach that can be applied to any school district. Specify migration and certain other assumptions. Re-run the model to produce an alternative set of estimates/projections with updated data or revised assumptions/factors. View the estimates, trends and projections in spreadsheet structure as well as maps. "How-to" Build Your Own GeoDemographic Information System While maps and geographic information system (GIS) tools are in widespread use, it has remained a challenge for non-GIS specialists to build a GIS that they can use. A daunting, time-consuming and costly task? Not really. See the step-by-step tutorial at http://proximityone.com/sdgis.htm on how to build and use a no-cost GeoDemographic Information System. Instructions are focused on building and using a School District GeoDemographic Information System (SDGIS). The SDGIS is set of a shapefiles and optionally other files that enable the user to visually analyze patterns and view data flexibly and interactively in the form of maps. In addition, data in the SDGIS can be viewed in a spreadsheet form and used to perform geospatial queries and analyses. Even though focused on school district(s), the steps can be followed to develop a GeoDemographic Information System for a city, county, region, market area or other study area. Census 2010 LUCA Program The Census Bureau continues to develop Census supplied local address data and housing count data for Census 2010 Local Update of Census Addresses (LUCA) program participants. At the same time, the Bureau continues development of the new TIGER/Line shapefiles that will be distributed to LUCA participants and other data users. In late November, the Census Bureau has started distributing the Census-supplied address list data, housing count data, and TIGER/Line shapefiles to LUCA participants. Flow of these data will continue through at least December. LUCA participants will benefit by not waiting on availability of the Census supplied materials before starting. Participants in the LUCA Option 1 program will benefit by having the geocoding and organization of the local sourced address data underway as soon as possible. Our experience in working with LUCA participants reinforces the importance of recognizing that the magnitude of the task to develop these geocoded data is easily underestimated. Interactive Demographic-Economic Ranking Tables Interactive ranking tables have been developed by Proximity for different types of geographies and covering different types of subject matter. See the new ranking tables main page to access these separate ranking table pages. Updates on Census 2010 Budget, Operation and Costs In the October DMINews, the potential impact of the FY 2008 Federal budget and continuing resolution on Census 2010 were reviewed. In September, Congress adopted a FY 2008 continuing resolution funding government programs at fiscal 2007 levels whose authorizations lapsed September 30 until November 16. In early November, Congress extended the date of the continuing resolution to December 14. In this process, exception was granted to operating costs relating to Census 2010 and most of the President's recommended budget was authorized pertaining to Census 2010. More Information Contact Proximity for more information about any of the topics reviewed in this section. |
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