Situation & Outlook

Models & Methodology

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Models & Methodology

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Models & Methodology

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Models

 

ProximityOne demographic-economic estimates and projections are developed using holistic demographic-economic models. Annual time series simultaneous equation models are used that specify cause and effect relationships among jointly dependent variables. Model estimation uses the most recent official current/historical data and estimates. Model specifications, including assumptions, are set to reflect regional variations and new developments that evolve.

 

There are four separate, but connected, models.

 

Outlook36

Outlook2017

Outlook2030

Outlook2060

 

Methodology

 

Outlook2060

United States National and by State Population Projections by Age-Race/Ethnicity-Gender (AREG)

 

State population projections are developed to be consistent with the United States (U.S.) national population projections. The cohort-component method was used to produce state population projections by single year of age, race-ethnicity catgories, and gender.  Each birth cohort (the people born in a specified year) was projected forward (e.g., from age 5 in one year to age 6 a year later).  Each component of population change – births, deaths, internal migration, and international migration – was projected separately from 2010 to 2060 based on fertility, mortality, and migration trends.  The sum of the projected total state populations by single year of age (0 to 100 and older) and gender were controlled to the corresponding U.S. population projections.

 

Relation to Census Bureau Data

Development of ProximityOne estimates and projections make use of Census Bureau data from Census 2010, annual American Community Survey and annual county and sub-county population estimates (Federal-State Coop Program for Population Estimates - FSCP) and related FSCP components of change data (births, deaths, migration). ProximityOne estimates and projections are not "control adjusted" to agree with the FSCP estimates. Other wide-ranging data are used in the models including data from the Bureau of Economic Analysis, Department of Education, Health & Human Services and Bureau of Labor Statistics - among others.

 

In general, three sets of estimates and projections are developed for Outlook 2030 and Outlook 2060 reflecting three scenarios: conservative, most likely and expansive. Each scenario reflects different assumptions. Only the most likely estimates and projections are released. The more conservative, expansive and alternative scenario estimates and projections, producing bands, can be developed by using the Modeler software.

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