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Demographics and K-12 Education
America's changing demographics has a profound impact on education
and its stakeholders. Important attributes of changing demographics are
not simply limited to the population in an area served by a school or
school system. Families and their children, students, school boards,
superintendents, teachers, and the community are each important, interact, and
influence each other.
Demographic data play a critically important role in the analysis of many
dimensions of K-12 education. These issues include topics such as
addressing special needs of students with disabilities, long-term
outcomes of early childhood programs, assessing the impact of Federally
funded programs intended to address special demographic cohort needs, bilingual
issues, matters involving diversity, immigration, migrant populations, and many others.
This section reviews topics concerning the development of, access to, and use of
data to assess demographic characteristics and trends essential to effective
planning, evaluation, and related decisionmaking operations
pertaining to K-12 education.
Latest Demographic Estimates
The latest demographic estimates for school districts may be viewed by
connecting to this link within the Census 2000 Data
Access and Use pages.
The following text provides a brief overview of the July 1, 1998, estimates of related school-age
children in families in poverty for school districts for income year 1997. That determination was aided by an evaluation of the available options by the Panel on
Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas of the National Research Council. The results
of this evaluation were published in 1999 as
Small-Area Estimates of School-Age Children in
Poverty, Interim Report 3: Evaluation of 1995 County and School District Estimates for Title I
Allocations by the National Academy Press. The panel recommended that the estimates be used to make direct Title I allocations to school districts for the 1999-2000 school year. Previously, Title I grants were distributed on a county basis with the individual states having
responsibility to redistribute the funds from counties to school districts. This redistribution was
done using a variety of techniques that varied by state. Many states used 1990 census data, or
1990 census data combined with data from other programs targeting a poor population, such as
Aid to Families with Dependent Children, the Food Stamp Program, Medicaid, the Foster Care
Program and/or the School Lunch Program. Other states used these alternative data sources only. Under the legislation that would allocate funds directly to school districts, states could aggregate
and then redistribute funds for school districts with a population less than 20,000. The National Research Council Panel recommended that states which chose this option use the county totals from the Census Bureau's SAIPE program to the extent possible.
Estimates released. Three estimates are provided for each school district: total population, the number of school-age
children (ages 5-17), and the number of related school-age children in families in poverty. Where two districts divide the children of an area between them by grade, the estimates do so as well. The
number of related school-age children in families in poverty in each school district is provided as
a component of the determination of basic Title I grants. The estimate of the total population of
each district is provided by the U.S. Census Bureau for use in the small district (less than 20,000)
provision. The figure for school-age children is provided so the proportion of poor children can
be determined. This proportion is required for allocating concentration grants. A true
poverty "rate" for children cannot be determined from these figures because the numerator and
denominator refer to slightly different universes.
Construction of the estimates. The poverty estimates were created using a "synthetic estimator." The estimate is the number of poor
children as measured in the 1990 census (for school districts defined by geographic
boundaries for the 1999-2000 school year) multiplied by the proportional change in child poverty in
the county in which the district is located. The school district estimates were then adjusted so
that they sum to the county estimates, which were, in turn, controlled to sum to the state
estimates. The county change is computed as the change from the 1990 census to the U.S. Census
Bureau's county model estimates for 1995. The county estimation models use
administrative data and data from the 1990 census and the Current Population Survey to estimate
child poverty. The population figures were created using similar "synthetic estimators."
This kind of estimator can not capture the variation in changes in poverty between school districts
within a county. It would be preferable to use a model with explanatory variables on the school
district level, but variables that are consistent across states are not presently available.
Precision of the estimates. The "synthetic" estimates for school districts do not have the degree of precision normally
associated with data published by the U.S. Census Bureau. The U.S. Census Bureau constructed an evaluation file with the purpose of examining the precision of
these estimates. It applied the estimation methods described above to the base data from the
1980 census, calculated "synthetic" estimates for 1990, and compared the results to the 1990
census. Districts were excluded from the evaluation file if they were coterminous with
counties, did not cover the entire grade range, or were known to have changed geographic
boundaries between 1980 and 1990. The remaining districts represented 61 percent of the total
number of districts and contained 56 percent of school-age children. The estimates proved reasonably accurate for large districts (with a population greater
than 40,000) and for those coterminous with counties. These districts comprise 13 percent of districts but include 62 percent of poor children. However, there are potentially very large errors for small districts. The average absolute difference between the estimate of related school-age children in families in poverty and the same figure
from the 1990 census is 60 percent of the census figure for school districts in the evaluation file. The results for large districts are similar
to the county model results, which have a comparable figure of only 16 percent. The estimates for the number of school-age children and the total population are relatively more
accurate. The estimate of the number of school-age children in the evaluation file differs from
the 1990 census figure by 17 percent on average. For the estimate of total population, the difference is only
13 percent. While the error relevant to the average school district is large, the error relevant to the average
poor child is much less. The average absolute difference between the evaluation file estimate and the census
figure is only 22 percent of the average number of poor children per district. This result is
obtained because most children are in large districts where the estimates are more accurate.
Recommendations of the National Research Council, National Academy of Sciences.
Despite the limitations, the Panel on Estimates of Poverty for Small Geographic Areas recommended to the Secretaries of Education and Commerce
that the Department of Education use the school district estimates for FY 1999 Title I allocations.
Even though the potential errors are large, the panel does not view the estimates to be "inappropriate or
unreliable". The panel interprets this clause in a relative sense: the estimates are "generally as
good as--and, in some instances, better than--estimates that are currently being used."
(1) As an
example of such a comparison, the panel compared the school district estimates to estimates
incorporating school lunch data for the state of New York. The two sets of results differed only
marginally. The report mentions other factors that were also important in the Panel's decision. The
Congressional mandate for direct allocations to school districts had a heavy weight, as well as the
uniformity gained by using the U.S. Census Bureau's school district estimates. Also, the panel
determined that the U.S. Census Bureau's ratio-adjusted estimates from the 1990 Census have a lower
variability than the estimates that states are likely to be able to derive from the same source.
(2)
The Secretaries of Commerce and Education have determined that these school
district estimates are not "inappropriate or unreliable" and, thus, they will be used for Title I funding.
School District Data Book and the 1990 Census
The 1990 Census marked the first time that a comprehensive database on children's
demographics and their living environment was developed
(by school district or otherwise).
The 1990 Census school district special tabulation is a database developed
by the Census Bureau under sponsorship and design by the National Center for Education Statistics (NCES), U.S. Department of Education. Also under sponsorship of NCES, Proximity (formerly MESA) organized the 1990 Census school district special tabulation into a database and integrated it with school district administrative and financial data. To
facilitate use of these data,
Proximity/MESA developed the 51 volume
CD-ROM software and database system known as the School District Data Book.
Extensive information on the 1990 Census school district special tabulation and School District Data Book is provided via the links presented below.
Downloading SDDB 2000 Upgrade. Use of these resources requires that you have one or more original SDDB CD-ROM(s). This upgrade provides new software that resolves problems associated with use of the original SDDB on Pentium machines.
There are no additional steps. After completing these steps, proceed to use SDDB as described in the documentation.
Census 2000 School District GeoDemographics. Planning is now underway for the development of a Census 2000 school district special tabulation. See the Census 2000 Data Access and Use section for the latest information on Census 2000 School District GeoDemographics. In 1999, NCES has commissioned preparation of a planning report which may be downloaded from the links provided below. This planning report reviews experiences of the 1990 Census and offers suggestions for developments relating to the Census 2000 school district special tabulation and the linkage of these two decennial data resources with other data resources of NCES.
School District Mapping Resources. The 1990 census also marked the first time that a national scope school district atlas was developed. The "Census Mapping Project" was undertaken through a collaborative effort involving all state education agencies. The purpose of that program was to establish the geographic base for tabulation of the the 1990 census data.
See the Census 2000 Data Access and Use section for
the latest information on Census 2000 School District GeoDemographics.
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