Economic Indicators
Contents
Economic indicators are statistics about economic activity that allow for the analysis of economic performance and the prediction of future trends. They are essential tools for policymakers, businesses, and investors to understand the health of the economy.
These indicators are often categorized as leading, lagging, or coincident.
| • | Leading indicators change before the economy does, and can be used to forecast future economic activity (e.g., building permits). |
| • | Lagging indicators change after the economy does, and are used to confirm past trends (e.g., the unemployment rate). |
| • | Coincident indicators change at the same time as the economy, providing a real-time view of current economic conditions (e.g., personal income). |
The U.S. government, through various agencies, produces a wide range of these indicators. Here are some of the most important ones:
Key Economic Indicators by Government Agency
U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis (BEA) The BEA is a key source for broad macroeconomic data.
| • | Gross Domestic Product (GDP): The most comprehensive measure of the economy, representing the total value of all goods and services produced in the country. It is released quarterly and is a primary gauge of economic growth. |
| • | Personal Income and Outlays: A monthly report that provides data on how much people are earning and spending. The Personal Consumption Expenditures (PCE) Price Index, which is part of this report, is the Federal Reserve's preferred measure of inflation. |
| • | U.S. International Trade in Goods and Services: A monthly report that details the nation's imports and exports, providing insight into the trade balance. |
U.S. Bureau of Labor Statistics (BLS) The BLS is the main source for data related to the labor market and inflation.
| • | The Employment Situation: A monthly report that is closely watched for the unemployment rate and the number of new jobs created (nonfarm payrolls). It is a critical indicator of the labor market's health. |
| • | Consumer Price Index (CPI): A monthly measure of inflation from the consumer's perspective, tracking the change in the price of a "basket" of consumer goods and services. |
| • | Producer Price Index (PPI): A monthly measure of inflation from the producer's perspective, tracking the change in the price of goods and services received by domestic producers. |
U.S. Census Bureau The Census Bureau provides economic indicators with a focus on business activity and construction.
| • | New Residential Construction: A monthly report on housing starts, completions, and building permits. It is a crucial leading indicator for the housing and construction sectors. |
| • | Advance Monthly Sales for Retail and Food Services: A monthly report that provides a timely estimate of consumer spending. |
| • | Manufacturers' Shipments, Inventories, and Orders (M3): A monthly report offering a look at manufacturing activity, which is a key component of the overall economy. |