Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA Regional Analytics

Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA Regional Analytics
-- Population & Components of Change; 2010-15

Components of Change: 7/1/2010-6/30/2015

Natural Change	14,793
equals Births	32,851
less Deaths	18,058
Net Migration	28,601
equals net International Migration	11,708
plus net Domestic Migration	16,893

The population of the Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA changed from 508,123 on 2010 to 552,493 in 2015 -- a change of 44,370 (8.73%). This report provides a summary of how and why the population has changed during this period and what these factors suggest about future change.

Primary Contributing Factors to Change
The primary contributing factors resulting in population change are 1) natural change (births less deaths) and/or 2) net migration. Eight tables are presented below providing annual data for each component county of the metro and metro summary. The tables provide data on the total population, births, deaths, natural change (births less deaths), international migration, domestic migration and net migration.

From 2010 to 2015 (7/1/2010-6/30/2015), net migration (28,601) exceeded natural change (14,793); net migration has been the primary contributing factor for the metro population change. Examine the metro by county tables below to learn about how each county contributes to the metro population growth or decline.

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Related Sections
• Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA S&O Report
• State of the States -- all states interactive table
• Metro S&O Reports -- all metros interactive table
• CountyTrends 2010-2015 -- all counties interactive table
• CountyTrends -- multi-sourced county data
• Regional Data Analytics Main

Table 1. Population
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Chg 10-15	%Chg 10-15
Chatham County, NC	37037	P0000001	63,781	65,179	65,772	66,668	68,609	70,928	7,147	11.21
Durham County, NC	37063	P0000001	270,878	276,552	282,614	288,642	295,323	300,952	30,074	11.10
Orange County, NC	37135	P0000001	134,043	134,759	137,662	139,287	140,160	141,354	7,311	5.45
Person County, NC	37145	P0000001	39,421	39,520	39,173	39,232	39,125	39,259	-162	-0.41
Total		P0000001	508,123	516,010	525,221	533,829	543,217	552,493	44,370	8.73
Table 2. Births
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Chatham County, NC	37037	B0000001	636	670	609	593	619	632	3,123
Durham County, NC	37063	B0000001	4,432	4,214	4,322	4,248	4,333	4,375	21,492
Orange County, NC	37135	B0000001	1,260	1,232	1,277	1,279	1,188	1,190	6,166
Person County, NC	37145	B0000001	416	426	379	408	427	430	2,070
Total		B0000001	6,744	6,542	6,587	6,528	6,567	6,627	32,851
Table 3. Deaths
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Chatham County, NC	37037	D0000001	448	598	628	630	628	671	3,155
Durham County, NC	37063	D0000001	1,436	1,811	1,694	1,879	1,841	1,915	9,140
Orange County, NC	37135	D0000001	960	749	714	721	759	744	3,687
Person County, NC	37145	D0000001	548	440	389	399	420	428	2,076
Total		D0000001	3,392	3,598	3,425	3,629	3,648	3,758	18,058
Table 4. Natural Change
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Chatham County, NC	37037	NC000001	188	72	-19	-37	-9	-39	-32
Durham County, NC	37063	NC000001	2,996	2,403	2,628	2,369	2,492	2,460	12,352
Orange County, NC	37135	NC000001	300	483	563	558	429	446	2,479
Person County, NC	37145	NC000001	-132	-14	-10	9	7	2	-6
Total		NC000001	3,352	2,944	3,162	2,899	2,919	2,869	14,793
Table 5. International Migration
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Chatham County, NC	37037	MI000001	104	84	54	71	83	85	377
Durham County, NC	37063	MI000001	1,212	1,444	1,310	1,448	1,657	1,667	7,526
Orange County, NC	37135	MI000001	732	645	685	759	862	858	3,809
Person County, NC	37145	MI000001	0	-3	-2	-1	1	1	-4
Total		MI000001	2,048	2,170	2,047	2,277	2,603	2,611	11,708
Table 6. Domestic Migration
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Chatham County, NC	37037	MD000001	832	636	587	984	1,577	2,769	6,553
Durham County, NC	37063	MD000001	-612	1,708	2,059	2,039	2,329	1,248	9,383
Orange County, NC	37135	MD000001	368	-456	1,621	265	-426	126	1,130
Person County, NC	37145	MD000001	-20	127	-334	37	-114	111	-173
Total		MD000001	568	2,015	3,933	3,325	3,366	4,254	16,893
Table 7. Net Migration
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Chatham County, NC	37037	MN000001	936	720	641	1,055	1,660	2,854	6,930
Durham County, NC	37063	MN000001	600	3,152	3,369	3,487	3,986	2,915	16,909
Orange County, NC	37135	MN000001	1,100	189	2,306	1,024	436	984	4,939
Person County, NC	37145	MN000001	-20	124	-336	36	-113	112	-177
Total		MN000001	2,616	4,185	5,980	5,602	5,969	6,865	28,601
Table 8. Group Quarters
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Chg10-15	%Chg 10-15
Chatham County, NC	37037	GQ000001	778	778	778	787	787	788	10	1.29
Durham County, NC	37063	GQ000001	12,512	12,898	12,807	12,722	12,884	12,895	383	3.06
Orange County, NC	37135	GQ000001	9,559	9,264	9,804	9,460	9,303	9,303	-256	-2.68
Person County, NC	37145	GQ000001	442	443	442	442	442	443	1	0.23
Total		GQ000001	23,291	23,383	23,831	23,411	23,416	23,429	138	0.59

Source: developed by ProximityOne based on Census Bureau and other data.
-- http://proximityone.com (888.364.7656)