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Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA Regional Analytics
  -- Population & Components of Change; 2010-15

Components of Change: 7/1/2010-6/30/2015
Natural Change 14,793
  equals Births 32,851
  less Deaths 18,058
Net Migration 28,601
  equals net International Migration 11,708
  plus net Domestic Migration 16,893

The population of the Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA changed from 508,123 on 2010 to 552,493 in 2015 -- a change of 44,370 (8.73%). This report provides a summary of how and why the population has changed during this period and what these factors suggest about future change.

Primary Contributing Factors to Change
The primary contributing factors resulting in population change are 1) natural change (births less deaths) and/or 2) net migration. Eight tables are presented below providing annual data for each component county of the metro and metro summary. The tables provide data on the total population, births, deaths, natural change (births less deaths), international migration, domestic migration and net migration.

From 2010 to 2015 (7/1/2010-6/30/2015), net migration (28,601) exceeded natural change (14,793); net migration has been the primary contributing factor for the metro population change. Examine the metro by county tables below to learn about how each county contributes to the metro population growth or decline.

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Related Sections
  • Durham-Chapel Hill, NC MSA S&O Report
  • State of the States -- all states interactive table
  • Metro S&O Reports -- all metros interactive table
  • CountyTrends 2010-2015 -- all counties interactive table
  • CountyTrends -- multi-sourced county data
  • Regional Data Analytics Main

Table 1. Population          
Area NameGeoIDItem201020112012201320142015Chg 10-15%Chg 10-15
Chatham County, NC37037P0000001 63,781 65,179 65,772 66,668 68,609 70,928 7,147 11.21
Durham County, NC37063P0000001 270,878 276,552 282,614 288,642 295,323 300,952 30,074 11.10
Orange County, NC37135P0000001 134,043 134,759 137,662 139,287 140,160 141,354 7,311 5.45
Person County, NC37145P0000001 39,421 39,520 39,173 39,232 39,125 39,259 -162 -0.41
Total P0000001 508,123 516,010 525,221 533,829 543,217 552,493 44,370 8.73
Table 2. Births          
Area NameGeoIDItem201020112012201320142015Sum11-15 
Chatham County, NC37037B0000001 636 670 609 593 619 632 3,123 
Durham County, NC37063B0000001 4,432 4,214 4,322 4,248 4,333 4,375 21,492 
Orange County, NC37135B0000001 1,260 1,232 1,277 1,279 1,188 1,190 6,166 
Person County, NC37145B0000001 416 426 379 408 427 430 2,070 
Total B0000001 6,744 6,542 6,587 6,528 6,567 6,627 32,851 
Table 3. Deaths          
Area NameGeoIDItem201020112012201320142015Sum11-15 
Chatham County, NC37037D0000001 448 598 628 630 628 671 3,155 
Durham County, NC37063D0000001 1,436 1,811 1,694 1,879 1,841 1,915 9,140 
Orange County, NC37135D0000001 960 749 714 721 759 744 3,687 
Person County, NC37145D0000001 548 440 389 399 420 428 2,076 
Total D0000001 3,392 3,598 3,425 3,629 3,648 3,758 18,058 
Table 4. Natural Change          
Area NameGeoIDItem201020112012201320142015Sum11-15 
Chatham County, NC37037NC000001 188 72 -19 -37 -9 -39 -32 
Durham County, NC37063NC000001 2,996 2,403 2,628 2,369 2,492 2,460 12,352 
Orange County, NC37135NC000001 300 483 563 558 429 446 2,479 
Person County, NC37145NC000001 -132 -14 -10 9 7 2 -6 
Total NC000001 3,352 2,944 3,162 2,899 2,919 2,869 14,793 
Table 5. International Migration          
Area NameGeoIDItem201020112012201320142015Sum11-15 
Chatham County, NC37037MI000001 104 84 54 71 83 85 377 
Durham County, NC37063MI000001 1,212 1,444 1,310 1,448 1,657 1,667 7,526 
Orange County, NC37135MI000001 732 645 685 759 862 858 3,809 
Person County, NC37145MI000001 0 -3 -2 -1 1 1 -4 
Total MI000001 2,048 2,170 2,047 2,277 2,603 2,611 11,708 
Table 6. Domestic Migration          
Area NameGeoIDItem201020112012201320142015Sum11-15 
Chatham County, NC37037MD000001 832 636 587 984 1,577 2,769 6,553 
Durham County, NC37063MD000001 -612 1,708 2,059 2,039 2,329 1,248 9,383 
Orange County, NC37135MD000001 368 -456 1,621 265 -426 126 1,130 
Person County, NC37145MD000001 -20 127 -334 37 -114 111 -173 
Total MD000001 568 2,015 3,933 3,325 3,366 4,254 16,893 
Table 7. Net Migration          
Area NameGeoIDItem201020112012201320142015Sum11-15 
Chatham County, NC37037MN000001 936 720 641 1,055 1,660 2,854 6,930 
Durham County, NC37063MN000001 600 3,152 3,369 3,487 3,986 2,915 16,909 
Orange County, NC37135MN000001 1,100 189 2,306 1,024 436 984 4,939 
Person County, NC37145MN000001 -20 124 -336 36 -113 112 -177 
Total MN000001 2,616 4,185 5,980 5,602 5,969 6,865 28,601 
Table 8. Group Quarters          
Area NameGeoIDItem201020112012201320142015Chg10-15%Chg 10-15
Chatham County, NC37037GQ000001 778 778 778 787 787 788 10 1.29
Durham County, NC37063GQ000001 12,512 12,898 12,807 12,722 12,884 12,895 383 3.06
Orange County, NC37135GQ000001 9,559 9,264 9,804 9,460 9,303 9,303 -256 -2.68
Person County, NC37145GQ000001 442 443 442 442 442 443 1 0.23
Total GQ000001 23,291 23,383 23,831 23,411 23,416 23,429 138 0.59

Source: developed by ProximityOne based on Census Bureau and other data.
  -- http://proximityone.com (888.364.7656)