Lynchburg, VA MSA Regional Analytics

Lynchburg, VA MSA Regional Analytics
-- Population & Components of Change; 2010-15

Components of Change: 7/1/2010-6/30/2015

Natural Change	1,644
equals Births	14,197
less Deaths	12,553
Net Migration	5,119
equals net International Migration	1,781
plus net Domestic Migration	3,338

The population of the Lynchburg, VA MSA changed from 253,054 on 2010 to 259,950 in 2015 -- a change of 6,896 (2.73%). This report provides a summary of how and why the population has changed during this period and what these factors suggest about future change.

Primary Contributing Factors to Change
The primary contributing factors resulting in population change are 1) natural change (births less deaths) and/or 2) net migration. Eight tables are presented below providing annual data for each component county of the metro and metro summary. The tables provide data on the total population, births, deaths, natural change (births less deaths), international migration, domestic migration and net migration.

From 2010 to 2015 (7/1/2010-6/30/2015), net migration (5,119) exceeded natural change (1,644); net migration has been the primary contributing factor for the metro population change. Examine the metro by county tables below to learn about how each county contributes to the metro population growth or decline.

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Related Sections
• Lynchburg, VA MSA S&O Report
• State of the States -- all states interactive table
• Metro S&O Reports -- all metros interactive table
• CountyTrends 2010-2015 -- all counties interactive table
• CountyTrends -- multi-sourced county data
• Regional Data Analytics Main

Table 1. Population
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Chg 10-15	%Chg 10-15
Amherst County, VA	51009	P0000001	32,385	32,119	32,449	32,198	32,062	31,914	-471	-1.45
Appomattox County, VA	51011	P0000001	15,035	15,003	15,137	15,222	15,266	15,414	379	2.52
Bedford County, VA	51019	P0000001	74,997	75,545	75,764	76,186	77,095	77,724	2,727	3.64
Campbell County, VA	51031	P0000001	54,934	54,922	54,888	55,062	55,101	55,086	152	0.28
Lynchburg city, VA	51680	P0000001	75,703	76,607	77,477	78,266	78,627	79,812	4,109	5.43
Total		P0000001	253,054	254,196	255,715	256,934	258,151	259,950	6,896	2.73
Table 2. Births
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Amherst County, VA	51009	B0000001	344	341	330	308	319	310	1,608
Appomattox County, VA	51011	B0000001	192	147	191	174	181	180	873
Bedford County, VA	51019	B0000001	832	825	737	773	696	702	3,733
Campbell County, VA	51031	B0000001	644	597	599	559	513	475	2,743
Lynchburg city, VA	51680	B0000001	952	955	996	1,005	1,107	1,177	5,240
Total		B0000001	2,964	2,865	2,853	2,819	2,816	2,844	14,197
Table 3. Deaths
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Amherst County, VA	51009	D0000001	212	362	352	353	333	363	1,763
Appomattox County, VA	51011	D0000001	108	170	153	133	165	155	776
Bedford County, VA	51019	D0000001	808	714	707	802	722	787	3,732
Campbell County, VA	51031	D0000001	612	497	485	526	500	505	2,513
Lynchburg city, VA	51680	D0000001	864	790	777	768	743	691	3,769
Total		D0000001	2,604	2,533	2,474	2,582	2,463	2,501	12,553
Table 4. Natural Change
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Amherst County, VA	51009	NC000001	132	-21	-22	-45	-14	-53	-155
Appomattox County, VA	51011	NC000001	84	-23	38	41	16	25	97
Bedford County, VA	51019	NC000001	24	111	30	-29	-26	-85	1
Campbell County, VA	51031	NC000001	32	100	114	33	13	-30	230
Lynchburg city, VA	51680	NC000001	88	165	219	237	364	486	1,471
Total		NC000001	360	332	379	237	353	343	1,644
Table 5. International Migration
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Amherst County, VA	51009	MI000001	0	2	6	7	7	8	30
Appomattox County, VA	51011	MI000001	0	0	0	0	0	0	0
Bedford County, VA	51019	MI000001	40	36	32	37	39	40	184
Campbell County, VA	51031	MI000001	40	10	12	16	17	17	72
Lynchburg city, VA	51680	MI000001	252	264	266	284	341	340	1,495
Total		MI000001	332	312	316	344	404	405	1,781
Table 6. Domestic Migration
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Amherst County, VA	51009	MD000001	4	-247	344	-203	-110	-99	-315
Appomattox County, VA	51011	MD000001	156	-15	93	40	40	116	274
Bedford County, VA	51019	MD000001	448	411	168	389	873	632	2,473
Campbell County, VA	51031	MD000001	264	-158	-157	141	41	-26	-159
Lynchburg city, VA	51680	MD000001	84	427	387	266	-341	326	1,065
Total		MD000001	956	418	835	633	503	949	3,338
Table 7. Net Migration
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Amherst County, VA	51009	MN000001	4	-245	350	-196	-103	-91	-285
Appomattox County, VA	51011	MN000001	156	-15	93	40	40	116	274
Bedford County, VA	51019	MN000001	488	447	200	426	912	672	2,657
Campbell County, VA	51031	MN000001	304	-148	-145	157	58	-9	-87
Lynchburg city, VA	51680	MN000001	336	691	653	550	0	666	2,560
Total		MN000001	1,288	730	1,151	977	907	1,354	5,119
Table 8. Group Quarters
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Chg10-15	%Chg 10-15
Amherst County, VA	51009	GQ000001	1,535	1,508	1,718	1,666	1,673	1,501	-34	-2.21
Appomattox County, VA	51011	GQ000001	56	56	56	56	56	56	0	0.00
Bedford County, VA	51019	GQ000001	652	608	593	551	554	551	-101	-15.49
Campbell County, VA	51031	GQ000001	468	468	380	468	468	468	0	0.00
Lynchburg city, VA	51680	GQ000001	10,199	10,264	10,294	10,297	10,302	10,763	564	5.53
Total		GQ000001	12,910	12,904	13,041	13,038	13,053	13,339	429	3.32

Source: developed by ProximityOne based on Census Bureau and other data.
-- http://proximityone.com (888.364.7656)