Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA Regional Analytics

Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA Regional Analytics
-- Population & Components of Change; 2010-15

Components of Change: 7/1/2010-6/30/2015

Natural Change	147,023
equals Births	296,320
less Deaths	149,297
Net Migration	215,505
equals net International Migration	56,044
plus net Domestic Migration	159,461

The population of the Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA changed from 4,204,981 on 2010 to 4,574,531 in 2015 -- a change of 369,550 (8.79%). This report provides a summary of how and why the population has changed during this period and what these factors suggest about future change.

Primary Contributing Factors to Change
The primary contributing factors resulting in population change are 1) natural change (births less deaths) and/or 2) net migration. Eight tables are presented below providing annual data for each component county of the metro and metro summary. The tables provide data on the total population, births, deaths, natural change (births less deaths), international migration, domestic migration and net migration.

From 2010 to 2015 (7/1/2010-6/30/2015), net migration (215,505) exceeded natural change (147,023); net migration has been the primary contributing factor for the metro population change. Examine the metro by county tables below to learn about how each county contributes to the metro population growth or decline.

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Related Sections
• Phoenix-Mesa-Scottsdale, AZ MSA S&O Report
• State of the States -- all states interactive table
• Metro S&O Reports -- all metros interactive table
• CountyTrends 2010-2015 -- all counties interactive table
• CountyTrends -- multi-sourced county data
• Regional Data Analytics Main

Table 1. Population
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Chg 10-15	%Chg 10-15
Maricopa County, AZ	04013	P0000001	3,825,597	3,871,957	3,945,460	4,015,328	4,090,022	4,167,947	342,350	8.95
Pinal County, AZ	04021	P0000001	379,384	378,044	382,349	385,360	396,521	406,584	27,200	7.17
Total		P0000001	4,204,981	4,250,001	4,327,809	4,400,688	4,486,543	4,574,531	369,550	8.79
Table 2. Births
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Maricopa County, AZ	04013	B0000001	52,492	53,377	54,292	54,627	55,060	55,671	273,027
Pinal County, AZ	04021	B0000001	4,688	4,912	4,531	4,646	4,579	4,625	23,293
Total		B0000001	57,180	58,289	58,823	59,273	59,639	60,296	296,320
Table 3. Deaths
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Maricopa County, AZ	04013	D0000001	25,244	25,933	26,038	27,385	28,175	28,981	136,512
Pinal County, AZ	04021	D0000001	2,560	2,366	2,477	2,518	2,685	2,739	12,785
Total		D0000001	27,804	28,299	28,515	29,903	30,860	31,720	149,297
Table 4. Natural Change
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Maricopa County, AZ	04013	NC000001	27,248	27,444	28,254	27,242	26,885	26,690	136,515
Pinal County, AZ	04021	NC000001	2,128	2,546	2,054	2,128	1,894	1,886	10,508
Total		NC000001	29,376	29,990	30,308	29,370	28,779	28,576	147,023
Table 5. International Migration
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Maricopa County, AZ	04013	MI000001	6,128	8,783	8,969	9,992	11,695	11,820	51,259
Pinal County, AZ	04021	MI000001	440	846	820	931	1,085	1,103	4,785
Total		MI000001	6,568	9,629	9,789	10,923	12,780	12,923	56,044
Table 6. Domestic Migration
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Maricopa County, AZ	04013	MD000001	756	9,408	36,089	31,365	33,711	37,670	148,243
Pinal County, AZ	04021	MD000001	11,100	-5,237	1,638	371	6,817	7,629	11,218
Total		MD000001	11,856	4,171	37,727	31,736	40,528	45,299	159,461
Table 7. Net Migration
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Sum11-15
Maricopa County, AZ	04013	MN000001	6,884	18,191	45,058	41,357	45,406	49,490	199,502
Pinal County, AZ	04021	MN000001	11,540	-4,391	2,458	1,302	7,902	8,732	16,003
Total		MN000001	18,424	13,800	47,516	42,659	53,308	58,222	215,505
Table 8. Group Quarters
Area Name	GeoID	Item	2010	2011	2012	2013	2014	2015	Chg10-15	%Chg 10-15
Maricopa County, AZ	04013	GQ000001	53,332	53,096	54,505	56,521	59,020	61,732	8,400	15.75
Pinal County, AZ	04021	GQ000001	27,800	27,613	27,550	25,512	25,952	25,298	-2,502	-9.00
Total		GQ000001	81,132	80,709	82,055	82,033	84,972	87,030	5,898	7.27

Source: developed by ProximityOne based on Census Bureau and other data.
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