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State of the States -- Population Trends 2010-2015
  -- expanding insights through data analytics
  -- examining components of change by state by county characteristics

April 2016. .. examining the how, why and where of population change by state from 2010 to 2015. This section provides an overview of this topic and provides a summary of tools, interactive table and GIS project, to analyze population change by state by county, using latest Census Bureau estimates data through 2015. These data are used by ProximityOne to develop/update annual national state and county demographic-economic projections. See schedule of related 2016 updates. See more about development of these data/reports below.

Patterns of Population Change by County, 2010-2015
The following graphic shows how counties have gained population (blue and green) and lost population (orange and red) during the period 2010 to 2015. Click graphic for larger view; expand browser window for best quality view.

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Examining Population Components of Change
Population change can be examined in terms of components of change. There are three components of change: births, deaths, and migration. The change in the population from births and deaths is often combined and referred to as natural increase or natural change. Populations grow or shrink depending on if they gain people faster than they lose them. Examining a region's unique combination of natural change and migration provides insights into why its population is changing and how quickly the change is occurring.

See more about these topics below:
  • Natural Increase/Change; birth & deaths
  • Migration; net international, net domestic, net migration

Click State link in table below to view detailed state by county tables:
  • annual population estimates 2010-2015
  • annual components of change

State Population & Components of Change 2010-2015 interactive table
  Click column header to sort; again to sort other direction.
  Click ShowAll button between queries to refresh. Usage notes below table.
  See related Ranking Tables Main Page

Usage Notes
  • Click ShowAll between queries/filters.
  • ChgCols button
    .. click this button to view mainly basic & Change 2010-15 columns.
  • Population Min & Max> button
    .. click to show only peer group counties based on values
        in min and max edit boxes.
    .. enter the minimum 2015 population in the left edit box.
    .. enter the maximum 2015 population in the right edit box.
  • Click ShowAll between queries/filters.

Items in Table
  • Area Name
  • State
  • FIPS State
  • Division code
  • Region code
  • Census 2010 population
  • Population estimate 7/1/2010
  • Population estimate 7/1/2011
  • Population estimate 7/1/2012
  • Population estimate 7/1/2013
  • Population estimate 7/1/2014
  • Population estimate 7/1/2015
  • Population change 7/1/2010-6/30/15
  • Population percent change 7/1/2010-6/30/15
  • Births 7/1/2010-6/30/15
  • Deaths 7/1/2010-6/30/15
  • Natural change 7/1/2010-6/30/15
  • Net international migration 7/1/2010-6/30/15
  • Net domestic migration 7/1/2010-6/30/15
  • Net migration 7/1/2010-6/30/15

U.S. Regions & Divisions

.. view developed with ProximityOne CV XE GIS and related GIS project.

Region 1 - Northeast
  Division 1: New England
  Division 2: Mid-Atlantic
Region 2 - Midwest
  Division 3: East North Central
  Division 4: West North Central
Region 3 - South
  Division 5: South Atlantic
  Division 6: East South Central
  Division 7: West South Central
Region 4 - West
  Division 8: Mountain
  Division 9: Pacific

Natural Change
Natural change is the difference between births and deaths for an area. Often natural change is positive which means that there are more births that deaths for a year or period. This positive natural change is referred to as natural increase. Examples of natural increase exist across the U.S.

The opposite of natural increase, natural decrease, occurs where there are more deaths than births resulting in population decrease. Areas with aging populations often have natural decrease. Two states had natural decrease between 2014 and 2015, Maine and West Virginia. Between 2014 and 2015, Maine had 450 more deaths than births and West Virginia had 940 more deaths than births. In both cases, natural decrease was one of the reasons why their populations declined between 2014 and 2015.

Migration is the movement of people from one area to another. It is often expressed as net migration, which is the difference between how many people move into and out of an area. When net migration is positive, a population has more people moving in than out. We split migration into domestic migration and international migration.

Domestic migration refers to people moving between areas within the U.S., and is often one of the largest contributors to population change. Regionally, the South gains the most net domestic migrants, with roughly 440,000 more people moving into southern states than leaving them between 2014 and 2015. Sometimes net domestic migration is negative, in which case more people are moving away than are moving in. The Chicago metro area in Illinois, Indiana, and Wisconsin lost about 80,000 people through migration between 2014 and 2015, which is consistent with a long-standing pattern of negative net domestic migration for the metro area.

International migration refers to people moving into and out of the U.S., and consists of a diverse group of people such as foreign-born immigrants from many countries around the world, members of the U.S. Armed Forces, and U.S. citizens working abroad. In some areas, like the Houston metro area, growth is in part due to net international migration.

Adding the net domestic and net international migration yields the net migration.

Components of Change
Analyzing the components of change is an enlightening way to understand how the U.S. population is shifting over time. Looking at counties across the country, we can identify groups of counties that grow (or decline) mainly due to migration and others that grow due to natural increase. Clusters seen in areas like Florida and Texas, which grew primarily due to net migration gain between 2014 and 2015, are visible in the map presented below. Other county groups, such as those in California, Utah, and along the east coast from Virginia up to New York, grew over the same span of time in large part due to natural increase.

About the Data and Reports
Data included in the interactive table and reports are part of a continuing set of demographic-economic estimates and projections released and updated on a flow basis. See a partial 2016 schedule below. See more about state demographic-economic trends. State and related metro reports have been developed using the ProximityOne Regional Data Analytics tools.

Schedule of Related 2016 Updates go top
Subject MatterData Reference DateRelease Date
Census Bureau Annual Updates  
  National, State, Metro, County population & components of change /17/1/20153/2016
  City and town (incorporated place and minor civil division) population7/1/20155/2016
  National, State, and County housing units7/1/20155/2016
  National population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin7/1/20156/2016
  State population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin7/1/20156/2016
  County population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin7/1/20156/2016
ProximityOne Current Estimates & Projections  
  Census Tract, County, Metro, State, U.S. Demographic-EconomicAnnual 2010-20216/2016
  County, Metro, State, U.S. Population Single Year of AgeAnnual 2010-20606/2016
  /1 .. data used in this section

Support Using these Resources
Learn more about accessing and using demographic-economic data and related analytical tools. Join us in a Data Analytics Lab session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants.

ProximityOne User Group
Join the ProximityOne User Group to keep up-to-date with new developments relating to metros and component geography decision-making information resources. Receive updates and access to tools and resources available only to members. Use this form to join the User Group.

Additional Information
ProximityOne develops geodemographic-economic data and analytical tools and helps organizations knit together and use diverse data in a decision-making and analytical framework. We develop custom demographic/economic estimates and projections, develop geographic and geocoded address files, and assist with impact and geospatial analyses. Wide-ranging organizations use our tools (software, data, methodologies) to analyze their own data integrated with other data. Follow ProximityOne on Twitter at Contact us (888-364-7656) with questions about data covered in this section or to discuss custom estimates, projections or analyses for your areas of interest.

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