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County Demographic Estimates & Trends

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This section is focused on three sets of U.S. by county level resident population estimates and trends data that reflect results of Census 2010. By geographic extension, this same scope of subject matter is available by metropolitan area, state and for the U.S.

In early 2012, ProximityOne will release U.S. national scope county level annual population estimates and projections for July 1, 2010 through July 1, 2020. These estimates and projections are part of a broader ProximityOne estimates and projections program. The estimates and projections provide breakout detail: single-year of age (0 through 84 and 85 plus), gender, bridged-race/non-bridged race, and Hispanic Origin. The estimates and projections reflect results of Census 2010, Census Bureau estimates (partly described below), NCHS estimates (described below) and other data including quarterly/annual economic time series. The county estimates and projections will be updated in early 2013 reflecting updates to related Census, NCHS, BLS and other relevant data sources and model specifications. The estimates and projections are developed using simultaneous equation models that effectively model single year of age dynamics in each county.

Intercensal Population Estimates by Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin
  April 1, 2000 to July 1, 2010
  Census Bureau, released September 2011, overview
Intercensal Population Estimates by Single-year of Age, Sex, Bridged-Race, and Hispanic Origin
  July 1, 2000 to July 1, 2009 and April 1, 2010
  National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS) with Census Bureau, released November 2011, overview
  See more about the race-bridged estimated and purposes served.
Post-Census 2010 Population Estimates and Projections by Single-year of Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin
  July 1, 2010 to July 1, 2020
  ProximityOne, for release 2012

Census Bureau Estimates. The Census Bureau estimates are available by county in two subject matter configurations: 1) 5-year age groups and gender (layout) and 2) race/Hispanic Origin and gender (layout). There is no "full cross" of the estimates age group by gender by race/Hispanic Origin.

Census Estimates Hispanic-NonHispanic:
  • Not Hispanic
  • Hispanic
Census Estimates Race Categories:
  • White alone
  • Black or African American alone
  • American Indian and Alaska Native alone
  • Asian alone
  • Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander alone
  • Two or More Races

NCHS Estimates. The NCHS estimates are available by county with a "full cross" of age-gender-race/ethnicity: single-year of age (0 through 84 and 85 plus), gender, bridged-race, and Hispanic Origin.

NCHS Estimates Hispanic-NonHispanic:
  • Not Hispanic
  • Hispanic
NCHS Estimates Race Categories:
  • White
  • Black
  • American Indian or Alaska Native
  • Asian or Pacific Islander

Advantages and Disadvantages of NCHS Bridge Estimates
Due to the availability of the single year of age breakout, the NCHS estimates are ideally suited for use in modeling, projection, trend analysis and alternative age grouping. One main disadvantage is that most published age by gender by race/ethnicity data are structured in the manner shown with Census 2010 and Census population estimates program.

Additional Information
Proximity develops geographic-demographic-economic data and analytical tools and helps organizations knit together and use diverse data in a decision-making and analytical framework. We develop custom demographic/economic estimates and projections, develop geographic and geocoded address files, and assist with impact and geospatial analyses. Wide-ranging organizations use our tools (software, data, methodologies) to analyze their own data integrated with other data.

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