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ProximityOne Main VDAGIS Related Sections - States - Metros - Congressional District - Counties - Cities/Places - Tracts/Neighborhoods - Block Groups - Census Blocks - ZIP Codes - Urban Areas |
Situation & Outlook
... knowing more about the current situation & opportunities, ... the how, when and where ... what will change and by how much, ... and how change might impact you. The U.S. population ages 65 and over is expected to more than double between now and 2060, from 43.5 million to 92.0 million. • How will this, and other age groups, be distributed by state and metro? • How will this, and other labor force groups, be distributed by state and metro? • How do different geographies synch? • How might your organization, revenues, market and other entities be impacted? Find out more about these topics and related demographic-economic trends. The ProximityOne Situation & Outlook (S&O) Program is a combined database and interpretive resource that you can use to better understand the existing situation, find out how area demographic-economic conditions are changing, and assess how changing conditions might impact you. Topics in this Section • S&O Calendar • S&O Data Access Options .. S&O Online .. S&O Datasets • S&O Quarterly Briefings Related Sections • Metro Situation & Outlook Reports • State & Regional Income & Product Accounts • ProximityOne Data Service • Digital Map Database S&O Database Content: Continuously Updated Subject Matter .. goto top The S&O database is comprised of demographic-economic historical data and estimates and projections, continuously updated with quarterly releases, for the U.S., states, metropolitan areas, counties, cities, census tracts, ZIP codes and other areas. Subject matter includes: • Population & Households - age, race-ethnicity, attributes; annual components of change - household structure, formation, attributes • Housing, Housing Markets & Real Estate • GDP & Personal Income by Major Sources • Prices & Cost of Living • Education • Establishments by Sector • Employment by Sector • Earnings by Sector • Economic Structure • Labor Market Conditions • Alternative Future Scenarios Contact us for more information on updates and scope. S&O Calendar .. goto top The S&O model is run quarterly based on updated historical data and specifications. Updated data are released quarterly. Quarterly Release Dates .. dates approximate 01.15.25 -- winter 04.15.25 -- spring 07.15.25 -- summer 10.15.25 -- fall 1. U.S. by State/County; population by age-race/origin-gender; 2020 through 2060 annual U.S. by Census Tract; population by age-race/origin-gender; 2020 through 2030 annual 2. U.S. by State/County; demographic-economic mix; 2020 through 2030 annual subject matter includes: - ACS-like subject matter (~100 items) - BEA REIS-like items - BLS QCEW-like items (2-digit NAICS) - other Scope of ACS-like Subject Matter
3. U.S. by State/County; demographic-economic mix; 2020Q1 through [three years ahead] subject matter includes quarterly data: - ACS-like subject matter (~100 items) - BEA REIS-like items - BLS QCEW-like items (2-digit NAICS) - other 4. U.S. by State/School District; demographic-economic mix; 2020 through 2030 annual subject matter includes: - single year of age by race/ethnicity by gender - total population (universe 1) demographic-economic mix (~30 items) - children (age 0-20 years) (universe 2) demographic-economic mix (~30 items) - selected NCES CCD-like admin data - other 5. U.S. by State/County/Tract; demographic-economic mix; 2020 through 2030 subject matter includes: - ACS-like subject matter (~100 items) - other derivative areas: Congressional Communities; school attendance zones; custom areas 6. Up to 4-digit (selected) NAICS sector/level projections 7. Individual company projections Estimates and projections developed for 6 and 7 are ad hoc/custom. Estimates and projections are developed using the ProximityOne Modeler software. Model specifications use cause and effect time series simultaneous equations. Generic County Model ... scroll section .. goto top
Selected equations illustrate structure of the simultaneous equation model.
A generic county level model is used but has some specification differences from county to county.
The generic county model makes use of the population identity equation:
P[i,a,g,r,t] = P[i,a,g,r,t-1] + B[i,a,g,r,t] - D[i,a,g,r,t] + MD[i,a,g,r,t] +MI[i,a,g,r,t] for the ith geographic area; a: age (0, 1, 2, ... 100, 100+); g: gender; r: race/origin; t: year total population for any single area, gender, race/origin, year determined by summing over age (a). Births: B[i,a,g,r,t] determined by fertility rates; where B[i,a,g,r,t] =0 for a>=1 (births only in age 0 cohort) Deaths: D[i,a,g,r,t] determined by mortality rates Domestic Migration: MD[i,a,g,r,t] = f1(MD explanatory variables) International Migration: MI[i,a,g,r,t] = f2(MI explanatory variables) Race/origin categories include, but not limited to: Total population One race alone White alone Black alone American Indian/Alaska Native alone Asian alone Native Hawaiian/Pacific Islander alone Other Race alone Two or More Races Hispanic/Latino population (any race) Other identities and cause and effect equations are included in the SEM to determine behavior/values of other items summarized in lists shown below. Examples: Employment: E004[i,a,g,r,t] = f_e004(E004 explanatory variables) School Enrollment: S052[i,g,r,t] = f1_s052(S052 explanatory variables) Educational Attainment, High School Graduate : S061[i,g,r,t] = f_s061(S061 explanatory variables) Households with Income $100,000 to $149,999: E059[i,a,t] = f_e059(E059 explanatory variables) Vacant Housing Units: H003[i,a,t] = f_h003(H003 explanatory variables) Owner Occupied Housing Units: H045[i,a,t] = f_h045(H045 explanatory variables) Data Access. Groups 1-5 above. Standard estimates and projections by ProximityOne are synergistically developed and released quarterly. As applicable, estimates and projections are aggregated to higher level geography (e.g., states and the U.S.) An independent U.S. and state model is run synergistically with data groups 1-5. A primary data access option is to download datasets as released. Data access modules may be downloaded for geographic coverage: U.S., state, county Users can run the Modeler software on their own computer using the historical database. Additional or variations on model specifications and assumptions can be set/managed by the user. Data are accessible on release day via VDAGIS tools S&O Briefing Sessions .. goto top - the Economy and Demographic-Economic Patterns Join us in quarterly S&O Briefing Sessions on The Economy and Demographic-Economic Patterns. Briefing Sessions are conducted shortly after the release of the new S&O quarterly updates. Briefing Session topics include: • Summary of new/updated data included in the latest quarterly update • Highlights of national, state and metro demographic-economic patterns .. revealed by new data and models • Updated demographic-economic outlook overview .. when will what change how and where? S&O Database Access Options .. goto top S&O data options include: • Online Access • Datasets via Download • Full Service • Integrated Modeling -- develop your own estimates and projections variations • Integrated GIS -- mapping, visual analysis, geospatial analysis Online Access S&O may be accessed online using VDA GIS Suite S&O Data via Download S&O data may be downloaded using DEDE. S&O Core Database Components .. goto top Core Database; updated continuously. The Core Database includes mix of monthly, quarterly & annual data; series start with data for 2020. • NIPA & SRIPA; multiple geography; updated monthly • Census 2020 DPSF; census tract, county, metro, state, U.S. • ACS 2020 DP1-DP4; census tract, county, metro, state, U.S. • ACS 20xx DP1-DP4; xx: for annual editions as released; census tract up • Census county components of change; age-race-gender estimates; 2020 through latest year estimated • ProximityOne Single Year of Age population estimates; county up; annual • BLS/CEW county up; employment, establishments, earnings quarterly & annual series 2020 to current quarter ... iterated for 6-digit NAICE type of industry. ... augmented with estimated values for suppressed data • BLS employment situation quarterly series; includes U-1 to U6 series; 2020 forward • FHFA quarterly metro housing price index series 2008 forward • Census housing & new construction; monthly • BLS local area employment; monthly • BEA regional economic information system annual series; 2020 through current estimated year. • NCES K-12 schools, school districts, related data Support Using these Resources .. goto top Learn more about accessing and using demographic-economic data and related analytical tools. Join us in a Data Analytics Lab session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants. Additional Information ProximityOne develops geodemographic-economic data and analytical tools and helps organizations knit together and use diverse data in a decision-making and analytical framework. We develop custom demographic/economic estimates and projections, develop geographic and geocoded address files, and assist with impact and geospatial analyses. Wide-ranging organizations use our tools (software, data, methodologies) to analyze their own data integrated with other data. Contact us (888-364-7656) with questions about data covered in this section or to discuss custom estimates, projections or analyses for your areas of interest.
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