Model-Based County Population Estimates & Projections
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... Part One: Current Estimates & Components of Change
What is the natural increase (population change due to births less deaths only, without considering migration)
in the population from year to year or over several years, for counties/regions of interest?
Does the county net migration reflect population moving in or out? Is there a migration pattern/trend?
What factors are responsible for migration? To know about these patterns, characteristics and trends -- "where we are now" and "about recent trends" -- requires annual, up-to-date population estimates.
Each year the Census Bureau develops model-based estimates of the population by county.
The post-census estimates are intended to provide updates to Census 2010.
The estimates provide an update and more current picture of the population size, composition and how it is changing.
In March 2014, the U.S. by county July 1, 2013 population estimates and components of change became available.
In June 2014, the U.S. by county July 1, 2013 population estimates with breakouts by age, gender and race/origin will become available.
The model-based estimates, also referred to as synthetic estimates, are separate from the annual American Community Survey (ACS) data
that provides similar annual population estimates.
Population Estimates and Components of Change
Model-based population estimates are developed using the population identity:
P[t] = P[t-1] + B[t-1,t] - D[t-1,t] + M[t-1,t]
The population at time t (July 1, 2013) is defined as the population at time t-1 (July 1, 2012)
plus births (B) occurring from time t-1 to time t, less deaths (D) occurring from time t-1 to time t,
plus net migration (M) occurring from time t-1 to time t. Migration is defined as the sum of the net international migration
(MI) plus net domestic migration (MD):
M[t-1,t] = MI[t-1,t] + MD[t-1,t]
Example: County Population Estimates & Components of Change ... scroll section
The graphic below shows the Census 2010 population (4/1/2010 column) and annual population estimates (7/1/2010 through 7/1/2013)
for Harris County (Houston), TX. The profile structure is expanded in related (upcoming) sections to show
1) alternative estimates and components of change and 2) addition of population estimates by age, gender and
race/origin. Click graphic for larger view structured as Web page.
Harris County, TX  Population Estimates & Components of Change
Click graphic for larger view
These profiles are available for any county by clicking the link in the interactive table below the scroll section.
See definitions and description of terms below in this section.
All items in this table are derived from the Census Bureau
estimates released in March 2014.
These estimates will update with 2014 estimates scheduled to become available in March 2015.
While these tables show data developed by the Census Bureau, most of these data are available only in data files that require
processing to organize the data into a usable form.
U.S. & State Population Estimates & Components of Change Profiles scroll section
County Population Estimates & Components of Change
Table initially sorted county within state followed by metros.
Click column header to sort; again to sort other direction.
Usage notes below table.
See related Ranking Tables Main Page
Click ShowAll between queries/filters.
Find in Name:
- key in text to right to button to find in Col 1 (case sensitive)
- if text is "Metro" (no quotes), all Metropolitan Statistical Areas (MSAs) will be selected
- if text is "Micro" (no quotes), all Micropolitan Statistical Areas (MISAs) will be selected
- if text is "Houston" (no quotes), all areas with "Houston" in name will be selected
- Summary Level
- State FIPS Code
- County FIPS Code
- CBSA - Core-Based Statistical Area code
- MD - Metropolitan Division code
- CSA - Combined Statistical Area code
- Population Census 2010
- Housing Units Census 2010
- Population 2010 estimate
- Population 2011 estimate
- Population 2012 estimate
- Population 2013 estimate
- Net Population Change 2010
- Net Population Change 2011
- Net Population Change 2012
- Net Population Change 2013
- Births 2010
- Births 2011
- Births 2012
- Births 2013
- Deaths 2010
- Deaths 2011
- Deaths 2012
- Deaths 2013
- Natural Increase 2010
- Natural Increase 2011
- Natural Increase 2012
- Natural Increase 2013
- International Migration 2010
- International Migration 2011
- International Migration 2012
- International Migration 2013
- Domestic Migration 2010
- Domestic Migration 2011
- Domestic Migration 2012
- Domestic Migration 2013
- Net Migration 2010
- Net Migration 2011
- Net Migration 2012
- Net Migration 2013
- Group Quarters Population 2010 Base
- Group Quarters Population 2010
- Group Quarters Population 2011
- Group Quarters Population 2012
- Group Quarters Population 2013
- Birth Rate 2011
- Birth Rate 2012
- Birth Rate 2013
- Death Rate 2011
- Death Rate 2012
- Death Rate 2013
- Natural Increase Rate 2011
- Natural Increase Rate 2012
- Natural Increase Rate 2013
- International Migration Rate 2011
- International Migration Rate 2012
- International Migration Rate 2013
- Domestic Migration Rate 2011
- Domestic Migration Rate 2012
- Domestic Migration Rate 2013
- Net Migration Rate 2011
- Net Migration Rate 2012
- Net Migration Rate 2013
Using the Profile scroll section
The population estimates and components of change profile is available by state and county.
The structure of the HTML profile is illustrated above in this section.
Item 1.1. shows total resident population for this area as estimated by the Census Bureau.
Item 2.1. shows the births data used by Census to develop the estimates in item 1.1.
-- births data are developed by NCHS and others; see below.
Item 3.1. shows the deaths data used by Census to develop the estimates in item 1.1.
-- deaths data are developed by NCHS and others; see below.
Item 4.1. shows the natural increase in the population from year to year.
-- natural increase is the population change due to births less deaths without considering migration.
Item 5.1. shows the migration data used by Census to develop the estimates in item 1.1.
-- migration data/estimates are developed by Census; see below.
Item 6. shows the residual data value resulting from the Census estimation method; see below.
Item 7. shows the estimated group quarters population; not part of the resident population in item 1.1.; see below.
Items 8.x. show selected rates of change based on Census estimates and Census components of change.
Column 1 provides a description for items in the corresponding row.
Column 2, 4/1/10, corresponds to the decennial census date.
Columns 3 through 6 contain data with a reference date of July 1 in that year; annual estimates.
Column 7 contains data showing the change in the value for selected items, 7/1/10 through 7/1/13.
Column 8 contains data showing the percent change in the value for selected items, 7/1/10 through 7/1/13.
Column 9 contains data showing the average value for selected items, 7/1/11 through 7/1/13.
-- the 7/1/10 value is excluded as these values relate to a part year.
Items 2 through 6 in column 7/1/10 relate to the period 4/1/10 to 7/1/10 (part year)
A value of -1 in rows 1.2. or 1.3. indicates estimate not available; see more about ACS below.
Estimates Scope, Terminology and Related Information ... scroll section
This section is focused on annual estimates and projections of the resident population by age, gender, race and Hispanic origin.
Resident Population. All persons who are "usually residents" of a specified geographic area.
The U.S. resident population includes all persons who usually reside in the 50 states and the District of Columbia,
but excludes residents of the Commonwealth of Puerto Rico and U.S. jurisdictional Island areas
(American Samoa, Guam, Virgin Islands, and Northern Mariana Islands).
The U.S. resident population excludes U.S. Armed Forces overseas
and civilian U.S. citizens whose usual place of residence is outside the U.S.
Births. Birth data are based on birth certificate data collected by the National Center for Health
Statistics (NCHS). NCHS provided final individual birth records for births occurring before
January 1, 2012 by date of birth, sex of child, residence and age of mother, and race and
Hispanic origin of both mother and father. The NCHS data are modified for use in the Census model-based estimates.
1) Not all states utilize the 1997 OMB race categories to request the parent race on
birth certificates. Some states still record race according to the 1977 OMB race categories of
White; Black; American Indian; Eskimo or Aleut; and Asian or Pacific Islander, under the "mark
one race" scenario. In some cases, the parent reported race from the 1977 OMB race categories is converted
to the 1997 OMB race categories. This process is done using the NCHS race bridging data.
2) Birth certificates only require the race and Hispanic origin of the parents, not of the child
directly. To impute the race and Hispanic origin of each child, the joint distribution of
their parents race and origin and decennial census data on race and origin reporting
within family households are used.
Deaths. Death data are collected by the National Center for Health Statistics (NCHS).
NCHS provided final individual death records for all deaths occurring before January 1, 2011
by residence, age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin of each decedent, as well as the place and date each death occurred.
Since individual death records for 2011 were not available in time for production of the Vintage 2013
population estimates, deaths for 2011 were estimated using summary totals provided by NCHS for the nation,
states, and counties. Deaths were distributed to age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin
detail using the most current final mortality file available from NCHS (calendar year 2010).
Net Domestic Migration. Domestic migration is estimated separately for three age groups (0-17, 18-64, and 65 and older)
and two population universes (household and group quarters). To do this, data are used
from tax exemptions, Medicare enrollment and change in the group quarters population.
Net International Migration.
International migration is estimated as several parts: immigration of the foreign born, emigration
of the foreign born, net migration between the U.S. and Puerto Rico, net migration of
natives to and from the U.S., and net movement of the Armed Forces population to and
from the United States.
Group quarters population. The seven major group quarters facility types utilized in estimate production are:
correctional institutions, juvenile institutions, nursing homes, other institutional facilities,
college dormitories, military housing, and other noninstitutional facilities.
Residual. Part of the total population estimate that results from
the application of population controls to estimates for lower levels of geography.
Support & DMI Web Sessions
Learn more about using resources described in this section.
Join us in a Decision-Making Information Web session.
There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions.
Each informal session is focused on a specific topic.
The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants.
We can address your specific questions about using metro and county demographic economic data and related applications.
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