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Situation & Outlook Model:
  Predicting Performance & Outcomes

    .. examining demographic-economic estimates, trends & forecasts
    .. comparing alternative policy effects

August 2023 .. California had the highest real GDP among all states over the year 2022Q1-2023Q1. Texas follows close behind and experienced the highest rate of growth in real GDP among all states over the same period. Two states experienced a decline in real GDP over the year. How will state and regional GDP components change over the next five years? What policy actions might affect this and how, when?

How State GDP is Changing
Use the interactive table below to learn more about how state GDP and how it is changing. View, sort, examine GDP time series attributes: real GDP, real GDP indexes, current GDP. State GDP matters as it tells us about how the aggregate economy is changing by region. But we need more than just recent data. We need to know more about the current situation, how things might change and how change might impact demographic-economic outcomes in the future.

The latest forecast based on the US Model.

The ProximityOne Situation & Outlook (S&O) Program is a combined modeling, database and interpretive resource used to better understand the existing situation, find out how area demographic-economic conditions are changing, and assess how changing conditions might impact you. Quantitative, data driven, tools are needed to predict alternative policy effects. This is where the S&O Model comes in.

S&O Model
The S&O Model is a quarterly/annual U.S. macro econometric model. The S&O Model builds on the Ray Fair US Model. The S&O generally follows the design/specification of the US Model but notably:
  • adds the U.S. subnational state and regional sectors.
  • integrates county BLS QCEW time series
  • integrates county Census model-based demographic estimates.
  • integrates county and subcounty ACS-based time series.

Examining Patterns of 2023Q1 per Capita Real GDP by State .. goto top
Use the "no login" version of VDA Web GIS to examine patterns of 2023Q1 per capita real GDP by state as illustrated in the following graphic. Nothing to install. Start VDA Web Base here. See more about VDA Web Base. Click graphic for larger view.

How is State Gross Domestic Product Changing? .. goto top
  State Quarterly GDP Time Series 2019Q1 .. 2023Q1 & Change -- Interactive table
  Click column header to sort; again to sort other direction.
  See usage notes below table.

Table Usage Notes

Historical GDP estimates are based on data developed by the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis.
Series in Table:
  Real GDP (millions of chained 2012 dollars) about
  Chain-type quantity indexes for real GDP about
  Current GDP (millions of current dollars) about

Real GDP .. goto top
Real GDP by state- Real GDP by state is an inflation-adjusted measure of each state's gross product that is based on national prices for the goods and services produced within the state. The real estimates of gross domestic product (GDP) by state are measured in chained (2012) dollars.

Chain-type Quantity Indexes .. goto top
Chain-type quantity indexes for real GDP- A quantity index is an index number that measures the change in the level of a quantity from a base year, apart from any changes in relative prices. The value of the quantity index is 100 for the base year. Chain-type annual-weighted indexes, also known as Fisher indexes, measure of real output and prices. These measures allow for the effects of changes in relative prices and in the composition of output over time, thereby eliminating a major source of bias inherent in fixed-weight indexes.

Current GDP .. goto top
Gross domestic product (GDP) by state- Gross domestic product (GDP) by state is the measure of the market value of all final goods and services produced within a state in a particular period of time. In concept, an industry's GDP by state, referred to as its "value added", is equivalent to its gross output (sales or receipts and other operating income, commodity taxes, and inventory change) minus its intermediate inputs (consumption of goods and services purchased from other U.S. industries or imported). GDP by state is the state counterpart of the Nation's GDP, the Bureau's featured and most comprehensive measure of U.S. economic activity. GDP by state differs from national GDP for the following reason: GDP by state excludes and national GDP includes the compensation of federal civilian and military personnel stationed abroad and government consumption of fixed capital for military structures located abroad and for military equipment, except office equipment.

Fair US Model .. goto top
The US model is a resource for business forecasters, government policy analysts, macroeconomic researchers, teachers and students. The US model was developed by Ray Fair starting in 1974-1976, and has been used since then for research, forecasting, policy analysis, and teaching. At the national level, the S&O Model is based on the Fair US Model.

The main strength of the US model is that it is probably the best approximation of the U.S. economy available. It has been extensively tested and analyzed, and unlike commercial models, it does not have to be subjectively adjusted to produce accurate forecasts. The first forecast is dated September 23, 1983. The past forecasting record of the model is updated each quarter.
  • Forecast Record
  • List of Variables & Equations
  • Latest US Model Forecast .. July 27, 2023
  • 2024 Vote Predictions .. July 27, 2023

The US Model can be used to forecast, do policy analysis, and examine historical episodes. For example, one can
  • Use the model to forecast, do policy analysis, and examine historical episodes.
      For example, one change government policy variables and examine the estimated effects of the changes.
  • Table and graph online and/or download all or part of the historical data, forecast data,
      and data that are creaded by the user.
  • Read online and/or download all the documentation, memos, and papers.
  • Download for use on one's own computer the Fair-Parke (FP) program and the US model.
  • Download for use on one's own computer the US model in ProximityOne Modeler.

Predicting Policy Effects with S&O Models
S&O Models can be used to project the likely effects of different policy options. The best policies might then selected based in part on the projected outcomes.

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