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State Population Estimates & Components of Change
  -- analyzing patterns 2010-2014
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State population dynamics are changing. Learn more about how states are changing and why using tools and resources reviewed here. Based on the new 2014 population estimates and components of change (December 2014), the population percent natural increase ranged from -0.69% (West Virginia) to 12.4% (Utah) during the period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014. This is one example of insights into the components of population change that can be determined using the interactive table in this section. Use the table to view, compare, rank state population estimates and components of change (births, deaths, migration). More about these estimates.

State population and components of change data are part of the Situation & Outlook (S&O) database and information system. Access/analyze these data in context of related geographic, demographic, economic and business data.

Visual Analysis of Migration Patterns, 2011-2014
The map graphic below shows patterns of total cumulative state net migration for the years 2011-2014 (7/1/10 to 7/1/14). See inset legend. The label shows total state net migration for the period as a percent of 2014 total population. In expanded view, the top label shows the total state net migration for the period and the bottom label shows total state net migration for the period as a percent of 2014 total population. Use the GIS project (details below) to create views with other population and population components of change or rates for any year or year group. Label areas as desired. Add other layers such as regions or divisions. Add your own data. See about related state-to-state migration patterns.

State Migration Patterns, 2011-2014

View created with CV XE GIS. Click graphic for larger view with more detail.

10 Most Populous States on 7/1/14
Rank   State Population
1   California38,802,500
2   Texas26,956,958
3   Florida19,893,297
4   New York19,746,227
5   Illinois12,880,580
6   Pennsylvania12,787,209
7   Ohio11,594,163
8   Georgia10,097,343
9   North Carolina9,943,964
10   Michigan9,909,877

10 Fastest-Growing States: 7/1/13 - 7/1/14
Rank   State%Change
1   North Dakota2.16
2   Nevada1.71
3   Texas1.70
4   Colorado1.59
5   District of Columbia1.51
6   Florida1.49
7   Arizona1.45
8   Utah1.38
9   Idaho1.34
10   South Carolina1.27

10 States with Largest Population Increase: 7/1/13 - 7/1/14
Rank   State Change
1   Texas451,321
2   California371,107
3   Florida292,986
4   Georgia102,584
5   Arizona96,487
6   North Carolina95,047
7   Washington87,788
8   Colorado83,780
9   South Carolina60,553
10   Virginia55,944

State/Region/U.S. Population & Components of Change; 2010-2014 -- Interactive Table
  Click column header to sort; click again to sort other direction.
  Model-based estimates. See usage notes below table. See related Ranking Tables Main Page
  Click row to copy to clipboard

Usage Notes
  • Use buttons below table for column group selections.

Population & Components of Change Items
The scroll box shown below lists each of the subject matter items available for each area via the interactive table. The subject matter item name shown at the left and is also used as the short name for the subject matter item in the column header in the ranking table. The item name is also used as the field name in GIS applications.
NAME Area Name
STATE GeoID
SUMLEV Summary Level
REGION Region
DIVISION Division
CEN2010POP Census 2010 Population (4/1/2010)
POPEST10 7/1/2010 resident total population estimate
POPEST11 7/1/2011 resident total population estimate
POPEST12 7/1/2012 resident total population estimate
POPEST13 7/1/2013 resident total population estimate
POPEST14 7/1/2014 resident total population estimate
NPOPCH10 Numeric change in resident total population 4/1/2010 to 7/1/2010
NPOPCH11 Numeric change in resident total population 7/1/2010 to 7/1/2011
NPOPCH12 Numeric change in resident total population 7/1/2011 to 7/1/2012
NPOPCH13 Numeric change in resident total population 7/1/2012 to 7/1/2013
NPOPCH14 Numeric change in resident total population 7/1/2013 to 7/1/2014
BIRTHS10 Births in period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
BIRTHS11 Births in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
BIRTHS12 Births in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
BIRTHS13 Births in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
BIRTHS14 Births in period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
DEATHS10 Deaths in period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
DEATHS11 Deaths in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
DEATHS12 Deaths in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
DEATHS13 Deaths in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
DEATHS14 Deaths in period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
NATINC10 Natural increase in period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
NATINC11 Natural increase in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
NATINC12 Natural increase in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
NATINC13 Natural increase in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
NATINC14 Natural increase in period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
INTMIG10 Net international migration in period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
INTMIG11 Net international migration in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
INTMIG12 Net international migration in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
INTMIG13 Net international migration in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
INTMIG14 Net international migration in period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
DOMMIG10 Net domestic migration in period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
DOMMIG11 Net domestic migration in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
DOMMIG12 Net domestic migration in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
DOMMIG13 Net domestic migration in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
DOMMIG14 Net domestic migration in period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
NETMIG10 Net migration in period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
NETMIG11 Net migration in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
NETMIG12 Net migration in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
NETMIG13 Net migration in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
NETMIG14 Net migration in period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
RESID10 Residual for period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
RESID11 Residual for period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RESID12 Residual for period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RESID13 Residual for period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RESID14 Residual for period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
RBIRTH11 Birth rate in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RBIRTH12 Birth rate in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RBIRTH13 Birth rate in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RBIRTH14 Birth rate in period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
RDEATH11 Death rate in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RDEATH12 Death rate in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RDEATH13 Death rate in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RDEATH14 Death rate in period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
RNATINC11 Natural increase rate in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RNATINC12 Natural increase rate in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RNATINC13 Natural increase rate in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RNATINC14 Natural increase rate in period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
RINTMIG11 Net international migration rate in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RINTMIG12 Net international migration rate in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RINTMIG13 Net international migration rate in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RINTMIG14 Net international migration rate in period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
RDOMMIG11 Net domestic migration rate in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RDOMMIG12 Net domestic migration rate in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RDOMMIG13 Net domestic migration rate in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RDOMMIG14 Net domestic migration rate in period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014
RNETMIG11 Net migration rate in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RNETMIG12 Net migration rate in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RNETMIG13 Net migration rate in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RNETMIG14 Net migration rate in period 7/1/2013 to 6/30/2014

Creating Map Pattern Views & Visual Analysis (requires Windows computer with Internet connection)
1. Install the ProximityOne CV XE GIS
... run the CV XE GIS installer
... take all defaults during installation
2. Download the U.S. by State Population 2014 GIS project fileset
... requires ProximityOne User Group ID (join now, no fee)
... unzip U.S. State Population GIS project files to local folder c:\popest
3. Open the c:\popest\stpop2014.gis project
... after completing the above steps, click File>Open>Dialog
... open the file named c:\popest\stpop2014.gis
4. Done. The start-up view is similar to the graphic shown at the top of this section.

About the Estimates
Annual U.S. and state level population estimates and components of change are released in January of each year and provide estimates as of July 1 in the previous year. These estimates are subsequently used by the Census Bureau as "control totals" to develop national scope county level estimates for the same date later in the year. In January 2014, the state level estimates and components of change data were released for the most recent estimate of total resident population as of July 1, 2013, and so on in successive years.

These model-based estimates are important because they reflect the Census Bureau's best estimate of the actual population in these areas. They are also important because the estimates become an annual time series that can be used in yet other modeling, estimation and projection applications. As of now, post Census 2010 estimates are available annually for 2010 through 2014. These data are also important because they are the "control total" estimates for county and other sub-state estimates developed by the Census Bureau that become the basis for Federal funding and other resource allocation formulas.

The components of change data are equally important as they are mathematically connected to the derivation of the total population estimates. The population identity is used to the develop the total population estimates:

  P(2014) = P(2013) + B(2013) - D(2013) + IM(2013) +DM(2013)

where P is total population and B(births), D(deaths), IM(net international migration) and DM(net domestic migration) are the components of change. Components of change provide insights into why one the population in one state grows at a different rate compared to other states.

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