State-to-State Geographic Mobility
-- State Migration 2011-2017 and Migration Flows in 2016
In examining future demographic trends, the most challenging component of change to project (develop data values into the future) is migration. Migration, comprised net domestic and net international migration, is a function of many factors whose cause and effect behavior can change year by year, and geographic area by area. While this section is focused on states, the same scope of data is available to the county and sub-county levels. In this section, U.S. by state migration is examined using two data sources: annual population and components of change model-based estimates (2010-2017 model-based estimates) and annual American Community Survey estimates (ACS 2016 estimates). While these Census Bureau programs are highly related, the migration data/subject matter differ some.
State Net Domestic Migration, 2011-2017
The following graphic shows patterns net domestic migration for the period 2011-2017, based on the model-based estimates. The patterns of migration change, direction and magnitude are immediately evident. Click on the graphic to see a larger view showing more detail. Expand browser to full screen for best quality view. The larger view shows a portion of a mini-profile for Florida. The mini-profile illustrates how these data are comprised ... annual net domestic migration estimates and the sum over the years 2011-2017. See the interactive table to view these data, and related components of change, in a tabular, numeric form. Use the GIS project (details below) to create similar views for any state; visual analysis of outmigration for any state showing outmigration by destination state. Label areas as desired. Add other layers. Add your own data.
View created with CV XE GIS. Click graphic for larger view with more detail.
State OutMigration by Destination State
The model-based estimates, reviewed above, do not provide detail on state-to-state migration. Those data are provided by the related ACS 2016 estimates. Note that the ACS 2016 1-year estimates are for the calendar year 2016. From these data we can get the following migration detail ... In 2016, there were an estimated 605,018 people who moved from a residence 1 year earlier, in a different state, to Florida. Florida experienced the largest number of movers (inflows) from other states among all states. 60,472 of these movers were from New York. See the interactive table in this section to examine similar characteristics for any state. These data are based on the 2016 ACS 1 year estimates. See about related data.
The American Community Survey (ACS) asks respondents age 1 year and over whether they lived in the same residence 1 year ago. For people who lived in a different residence, the location of their previous residence is collected. The state-to-state migration flows are created from tabulations of the current state (including the District of Columbia) of residence crossed by state of residence 1 year ago.
Movers Within and Between States & Selected Areas During 2016
Use the interactive table ranking table provided below to rank states based on the number of movers between states. These data are based on the 2016 ACS 1 year estimates. The data reflect movers during calendar year 2016. These data are estimates; smaller estimates are errors of estimation.
Click ShowAll button below table between queries.
Click column header to sort; again to sort other direction.
Usage notes below table. See related interactive tables.
Using the Table
The rows in each table represent the state of current residence.
Pop 1yr+ 1 Year Ago -- the population age 1 year and over.
Non Movers -- population that did not change residence in the past year.
Movers within state -- population that moved during past year within same state
Movers from different state -- total movers into this state from a different state in past year.
The value -1 indicates data not applicable.
State columns (columns 6 to end) represent the state of residence 1 year ago. The cells where the current residence and residence 1 year ago are in the same state are the estimated number of people who moved within the state. To view the number of movers in California from 1 year ago (column) to the current state of residence (row), click the CA column header for an ascending ranked view, and click that column header again for a descending ranked view.
Creating Map Pattern Views & Visual Analysis (requires Windows computer with Internet connection)
1. Install the ProximityOne CV XE GIS
... not required in CV XE GIS already installed.
... run the CV XE GIS installer
... take all defaults during installation
2. Download the U.S. by State Migration 2016 GIS project fileset
... these resources available as part of the Mapping Statistical Data program; see details; user ID required
... unzip U.S. State Migration GIS project files to local folder c:\migration
3. Open the c:\migration\states2017_migration.gis project
... after completing the above steps, click File>Open>Dialog
... open the file named c:\migration\states2017_migration.gis
4. Done. The start-up view is similar to the graphic shown at the top of this section.
State Projections to 2060
State Population Estimates
-- includes international, domestic and net migration estimates
State Trends Main
Accessing ACS 2016 1 Year State Estimates
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