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Census Tract Demographic-Economic Estimates & Projections

June 2017. Census tract demographics are used in wide-ranging public and private sector applications to examine patterns and characteristics of sub-county areas. Tract level data from Census 2000, Census 2010 and the American Community Survey (ACS) can be used to analyze trade/market areas, neighborhoods and other small area study areas. But what about more current data and trends since 2010? What about business establishment data and other subject matter not included in either the census or ACS data?

There are no current demographic-economic census tract data available from the Census Bureau or other Federal statistical programs. Annually released ACS 5-year estimates are available by census tract but are for 5-year periods and out-of-date. The most recent census tract level ACS data are based on the ACS 2015 5-year estimates (ACS 1115). Those data are not for the year 2015 but estimates for ACS survey respondents for the 5 year period 2011-2015; centric to mid-2013.

ProximityOne Census Tract Estimates & Projections
ProximityOne provides annual U.S. national scope census tract demographic-economic-business estimates and projections for the period 2010 through 2022 (2017 vintage). This section provides information about these estimates and projections. These census tract level data are part of the ProximityOne Situation & Outlook database and information system.

Annual census tract level estimates and projections are available for the period 2010 through 2022. "5-year projections" are updated and extended annually. For the 2017 vintage estimates and projections, the estimates are for 2010 through 2017. The projections are for the period 2018 through 2022. The 2018 vintage data (released in mid-2018) extend the projections by one year to 2023.

Tract estimates and projections subject matter are summarized below. These data are also available summarized to the county, metro/CBSA, state and U.S. national level.

Scope of Subject Matter - categories; table below provides item level detail
Units in structure
Rooms in unit
Bedrooms in unit
Housing tenure
Year householder moved into unit
Vehicles available
House heating fuel
Selected housing unit characteristics
Occupants per room
Housing value (owner occupied units)
Mortgage status
Selected monthly owner costs
Gross rent (renter occupied units)
Gross rent as percent of household income
Migration - residence 1 year ago
Place of birth
Citizenship status
Language spoken at home; linguistic isolation
Employment status
Employment by occupation
Employment by industry
Employment by class of worker
Commuting
Income and benefits
Families and population in poverty
Housing units & occupancy
Year structure built
Geographic identification; relationship codes
Population and components of change
Citizen Voting Age Population
Housing Price Index
Cost of Living Index
Net Worth
Age and gender
Race/Origin
Households by type
Relationship within household
Marital status
School enrollment
Educational attainment

Tract Estimate & Projection Items -- scroll table
  -- fields included in database -- see notes below table

Contact us (888.364.7656) to place an order, get a quote or discuss what works best for you.

There are 317 fields in each census tract record.
Each census tract record (73,056 records) is iterated for each year, 2010 through 2022.
Any or all fields/items or years may be purchased with the minimum of "Group1" items:
- click Refresh then Group1 button to view list of Group1 items (21 fields)
    .. code group fields plus total population and housing.
- click Refresh then Group2 button to view list of Group2 items (Group1 items + additional fields; total fields=61)
    .. group1 fields plus selected population/housing attributes including age detail.
- click Refresh then Group3 button to view list of Group3 items (Group2 items + additional fields; total fields=76)
    .. group2 fields plus selected economic, social and housing characteristics.

Accessing & Using the Estimates and Projections
There are several ways the census tract demographic-economic estimates and projections may be accessed and used.

  • Data File License. Licensed for use in the form of a data file (one year renewable)
  • Integrated with CVXEGIS/Modeler Software -- geospatially analysis; data linkage
    .. ready-to-use GIS projects with integrated tract-county-metro-state- national estimates & projections
  • SiteReport -- create custom geographic area reports/analyses
  • On Demand/Web interface
    .. illustrative demographic-economic profile
    .. view in context with map & adjacent tracts

Methodology
Tract estimates and projections are developed using holistic, metro/county-centric, integrated demographic-economic-business models. We use a range of sub-county data to document change at the tract and sub-tract levels. These data include USPS delivery data; motor vehicle registrations; building permits, completions and occupancy data; housing sales; business establishment and attributes data and special developments that have or may have an impact on sub-county demographic-economic change.

Geography
Tract geography is based on Census 2010 census tracts. Tract codes are uniquely identified on a national scale with the 11 character GEOID. The GEOID is comprised of the state FIPS code (2), county FIPS codes (3) and census tract code (6). All tract codes (6 character part of the GEOID) are the same annually from 2010 through the projection period. The state and county codes are the codes in the most recent annual TIGER digital map database (as defined in the U.S. county file).

About Census Tract Geography and Codes (scroll section)
Census tracts are defined by the Census Bureau and organized as sub-county building blocks. Census tracts are small geographic areas, designed to average 4,000 population, but vary widely. Census tracts cover the U.S. wall-to-wall provide a good geographic granularity to meet many needs. Unchanging throughout the decade, census tract boundaries are subject to update for each decennial census. Major changes occurred with Census 2010 vintage census tracts as the approximate 65,000 Census 2000 census tracts expanded to 73,057 Census 2010 census tracts.

Census tracts were first designed to be relatively homogeneous with respect to population characteristics, economic status, and living conditions. Over time, with demographic shifts, census tracts are often no longer so homogenous. However, tracts do closely approximate neighborhoods/neighborhood parts for many areas. The geographic size of census tracts varies widely depending on the density of settlement. Census tract boundaries are delineated with the intention of being maintained over many decades so that statistical comparisons can be made from decennial census to decennial census. Census tracts may be split due to population growth or combined as a result of substantial population decline.

Census tracts were initially identified by a four-digit basic number and with a two-digit numeric suffix; for example, 6059.02. This version of the tract code is shown in column 3 in the ranking table. The decimal point separating the four-digit basic tract number from the two-digit suffix has been historically shown in printed reports and maps. Many census tracts do not have a suffix; in such cases, the suffix field is either left blank or is zero-filled. Census tract suffixes may range from .01 to .98. These optionally ways of assigning census tract geocodes or handles has led to some vagueness potentially creating problems in handling now common spreadsheet or CSV files.

The national scope uniquely identifying tract geocode is the 11 character code shown in column 4 in the ranking table. The tract geocode is of the form SSCCCTTTTTT where SS is the FIPS state code, CCC is the county FIPS code and TTTTTT is the Census assigned tract code. In the tract geocode, there are never blanks or dots and lead zeroes are used for each the state, county and tract code components. This is the recommended tract unique identifier.

Impact of Census 2010 Census Tract Codes Changes
An important feature of census tract codes and corresponding geographic area is that they typically do not change from one census to the next. The Census Bureau has made changes to some Census 2010 census tract codes and areas in New York following tabulation of the Census 2010 results. ACS 2011 tract estimates, future ACS census tract estimates and non-Census estimates and projections are impacted. These changes impact the structure and number of census tracts in New York and as a result the number and sequencing national scope census tracts. As of Census 2010, there were 73,057 census tracts (states and D.C.); there are now 73,056 census tracts. These changes do not impact tracts/tract data confined to single states other than New York.

For the 2011 ACS data release, there are tract numbering changes and geographic definition changes to census tracts in Madison, Oneida and Richmond counties, New York. The census tract changes in Madison and Oneida Counties are the result of changes to the Oneida American Indian Reservation boundary after the 2010 Census tract definitions had been finalized.

Madison County, New York (36053)
In Madison County, the numbering of nine census tracts changed, but their geographic definitions remain the same as their 2010 census tract definitions.
Census Tract 9401.01 is now 0301.01
Census Tract 9401.02 is now 0301.02
Census Tract 9401.03 is now 0301.03
Census Tract 9402.00 is now 0302.00
Census Tract 9403.00 is now 0303.00
Census Tract 9404.01 is now 0304.01
Census Tract 9404.03 is now 0304.03
Census Tract 9406.00 is now 0306.00
Census Tract 9407.00 is now 0304.02

Oneida County, New York (36065)
In Oneida County, the numbering of three tracts changed, and there is a geographic definition change that affects two tracts.
Census Tract 9400.00 is now 0248.00
Census Tract 9401.00 is now 0247.00

(2010) Census Tract 9402.00 forms a portion of (2011) tract 0249.00
Part of (2010) Census Tract 0230.00 forms a portion of (2011) tract 0249.00
Part of (2010) Census Tract 0230.00 is now (2011) tract 0230.00

Richmond County, New York (36085)
Census Tract 0089.00 merged into Census Tract 0097.00. The area merged into Census Tract 0097.00 is entirely water.

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Support Using these Resources
Learn more about census tract demographic economic data and related analytical tools. Join us in a Data Analytics Lab session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants.

Additional Information
ProximityOne develops geographic-demographic-economic data and analytical tools and helps organizations knit together and use diverse data in a decision-making and analytical framework. We develop custom demographic/economic estimates and projections, develop geographic and geocoded address files, and assist with impact and geospatial analyses. Wide-ranging organizations use our tools (software, data, methodologies) to analyze their own data integrated with other data. Follow ProximityOne on Twitter at www.twitter.com/proximityone. Contact ProximityOne (888-364-7656) with questions about data covered in this section or to discuss custom estimates, projections or analyses for your areas of interest.


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