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Census Tract Demographic-Economic Estimates & Projections
  -- examine small area, subcounty change and how it may impact you

February 2023. Census tract demographics are used in wide-ranging public and private sector applications to examine patterns and characteristics of sub-county areas. Tract level data from Census 2010, Census 2020 and the American Community Survey (ACS) can be used to analyze trade/market areas, neighborhoods and other small area study areas. But what about more current data and trends since 2020? What about business establishment data and other subject matter not included in either the census or ACS data?

Census Tracts Main Section .. about Census Tracts

Tract Estimates & Projections, 2020-2027
Quarterly and annual census tract estimates and projections are developed using the Situation & Outlook (S&O) model for the period 2020 through 2027 -- 5 year projections.

Why Currest Estimate & Projections Are Essential
Empower yourself/organization to examine the current demographic economic situation and how things might change over the next several years at the neighborhood level. There are no current demographic-economic data available from the Census Bureau or other Federal statistical programs. Annually released ACS 5-year estimates are available by census tract but are for 5-year periods and dated. The most recent census tract level ACS data are based on the ACS 2021 5-year estimates (ACS 2021). Those data are not for the year 2021 but estimates for ACS survey respondents for the 5 year period 2017-2021; centric to mid-2019.

Scope of Subject Matter - categories; table below provides item level detail
Rooms in unit
Bedrooms in unit
Housing tenure
Year householder moved into unit
Vehicles available
House heating fuel
Selected housing unit characteristics
Occupants per room
Housing value (owner occupied units)
Mortgage status
Selected monthly owner costs
Gross rent (renter occupied units)
Gross rent as percent of household income
Language spoken at home
Linguistic isolation
Employment status
Employment by occupation
Employment by industry
Employment by class of worker
Commuting
Income and benefits
Families and population in poverty
Housing units & occupancy
Year structure built
Units in structure
Geographic identification
Citizen Voting Age Population
Age and gender
Race/Origin
Households by type
Relationship within household
Marital status
School enrollment
Educational attainment
Migration - residence 1 year ago
Place of birth
Citizenship status

The Situation & Outlook Model
We live in a dynamic ever changing world. We can't examine just one or a few geographic levels. We can't just examine a small set of subject matter items. The model says how things work. We can't just wait for a year between updates. The Situation & Outlook (S&O) multi-equation cause and effect model is used to develop estimates and projections for U.S. national scope geographic levels including the U.S., State, Metro, Congressional District, County, Place, Census Tract, Congressional Community and custom defined areas. Different data inputs and outputs apply different geographic levels. ACS-like demographic economic estimates and projections are produced for all geographic levels.

Data Inputs
.. BEA GDP by sector & Personal Income by sector (county up)
.. QCEW with suppressed values estimated; quarterly (county up)
.. Census model-based demographic estimates; annual Mar-June; county up & places
.. Census building permits; monthly, county, place
.. direct continuous monitoring building permits, developments, selected items
.. ACS 1 year estimates (Sept); 5 year estimates (Dec)
.. BEA GDP & Personal Income (REIS); annual & quarterly
.. other sources

Quarterly & Annual Estimates and Projections Updated Quarterly .. goto top
The S&O model specification, including assumptions, are updated quarterly. The model is re-estimated quarterly/annually and updated estimates with 5-year projections are developed. .. the general current estimates/projections timeframe is 2020 through 2027
.. 5-year projections are extended one year annually with quarterly updates
2022 vintage
.. time series estimates/projections period: 2020Q1 through 2027Q4
.. 2022Q3 Apr 1 (includes QCEW 2022Q3 March 8)
.. 2022Q4 Jul 1 (QCEW 2022Q4 & 2022 annual June 7)
2023 vintage
.. time series estimates/projections period: 2020Q1 through 2028Q4
.. 2023Q1 Oct 1 (QCEW 2023Q1 Sep 6)
.. 2023Q2 Jan 1 (QCEW 2023Q1 Dec 7)

QCEW -- BLS Quarterly Census of Establishments, Employment & Wages
.. an augmented QCEW database provides access to NAICS 6-digit detail with no data suppression
.. QCEW data are used in the county-up components and system estimation.
.. The QCEW items are not estimated/projected at the place, tract or sub-county levels.

Availability .. goto top
  • monthly S&O briefs by web session and PDF.
  • interactive, on-demand, with VDA Web GIS subscription.
  • datasets for download in GIS friendly structure.
  • S&O profiles developed on-demand using the Demographic-Economic Data Explorer (DEDE).

Illustrative Scope of Subject Matter for Selected Tract
VDA map graphic for tract 06037139701 in Los Angeles County:

ACS 2021 base data for this tract:
 ItemNameDataValues    Description
 GEOID06037139701    Geocode
 ALANDSQMI1.311    Land Area, SqMi
 AWATRSQMI0.001    Water Area, SqMi
 YEAR2019-2021    Time period
 D001 5729    Total Population
 D002 2589    Male
 D003 3140    Female
 D005 201    Under 5 Years
 D006 281    5 to 9 Years
 D007 278    10 to 14 Years
 D008 367    15 to 19 Years
 D009 250    20 to 24 Years
 D010 498    25 to 34 Years
 D011 798    35 to 44 Years
 D012 892    45 to 54 Years
 D013 509    55 to 59 Years
 D014 375    60 to 64 Years
 D015 798    65 to 74 Years
 D016 301    75 to 84 Years
 D017 181    85 Years and Over
 D018 47.2    Median age (years)
 D019 1081    Under 18 years
 D020 4772    16 years and over
 D021 4648    18 years and over
 D022 4548    21 years and over
 D023 1579    62 years and over
 D024 1280    65 years and over
 D036 5341    One Race
 D037 4813    One Race -- White
 D038 146    One Race -- Black or African American
 D039 11    One Race -- American Indian and Alaska Native
 D044 197    One Race -- Asian
 D052 0    One Race -- Native Hawaiian and Other Pacific Islander
 D057 174    One Race -- Some Other Race
 D058 388    Two or more races
 D071 529    Hispanic or Latino (of any race)
 D072 399    Hispanic or Latino (of any race) -- Mexican
 D076 5200    Not Hispanic or Latino
 D077 4458    Not Hispanic or Latino -- White Alone
 D078 146    Not Hispanic or Latino -- Black or African American Alone
 D0874228    Citizen, 18 and Over Population
 D0881901    Citizen, 18 and Over Population - Male
 D0892327    Citizen, 18 and Over Population - Female
 S001 2118    Total Households
 S002 1146    Total Households -- Married-couple family
 S004 62    Total Households -- Cohabitating couple household
 S008 173    Total Households -- Householder living alone, male
 S012 348    Total Households -- Householder living alone, female
 S016 2.66    Average household size
 S017 3.27    Average family size
 S018 5631    Population in Households
 S053 1212    School Enrollment -- Population 3 Years and Over Enrolled in School
 S054 113    School Enrollment -- Population 3 Years and Over Enrolled in School -- Nursery School, Preschool
 S055 49    School Enrollment -- Population 3 Years and Over Enrolled in School -- Kindergarten
 S056 427    School Enrollment -- Population 3 Years and Over Enrolled in School -- Elementary School (Grades 1-8)
 S057 326    School Enrollment -- Population 3 Years and Over Enrolled in School -- High School (Grades 9-12)
 S058 297    School Enrollment -- Population 3 Years and Over Enrolled in School -- College or Graduate School
 S059 4352    Educational Attainment -- Population 25 Years and Over
 S060 25    Educational Attainment -- Population 25 Years and Over -- Less Than 9th Grade
 S061 259    Educational Attainment -- Population 25 Years and Over -- 9th to 12th Grade, No Diploma
 S062 571    Educational Attainment -- Population 25 Years and Over -- High School Graduate (Includes Equivalency)
 S063 519    Educational Attainment -- Population 25 Years and Over -- Some College, No Degree
 S064 158    Educational Attainment -- Population 25 Years and Over -- Associate's Degree
 S065 1450    Educational Attainment -- Population 25 Years and Over -- Bachelor's Degree
 S066 1370    Educational Attainment -- Population 25 Years and Over -- Graduate or Professional Degree
 S067 93.5    Educational Attainment -- Population 25 Years and Over -- Percent High School Graduate or Higher
 S068 64.8    Educational Attainment -- Population 25 Years and Over -- Percent Bachelor's Degree or Higher
 S079 5682    Residence 1 Year Ago -- Population 1 Year and Over
 S080 4996    Residence 1 Year Ago -- Same House
 S081 686    Residence 1 Year Ago -- Different House in the U.S. or abroad
 S082 625    Residence 1 Year Ago -- Different House in the U.S.
 S083 532    Residence 1 Year Ago -- Different House in the U.S. -- Same County
 S084 93    Residence 1 Year Ago -- Different House in the U.S. -- Different County
 S085 30    Residence 1 Year Ago -- Different House in the U.S. -- Different County -- Same State
 S086 63    Residence 1 Year Ago -- Different House in the U.S. -- Different County -- Different State
 S087 61    Residence 1 Year Ago -- Abroad
 S0894092    Place of Birth -- Native
 S090 4016    Place of Birth -- Native -- Born in U.S.
 S091 2447    Place of Birth -- Native -- Born in U.S. -- State of Residence
 S092 1569    Place of Birth -- Native -- Born in U.S. -- Different State
 S093 76    Place of Birth -- Native -- Born in Puerto Rico, U.S. Island Areas, or Born Abroad to American Parents
 S094 1637    Place of Birth -- Foreign Born
 S095 1637    U.S. Citizenship Status -- Foreign-Born Population
 S096 1191    U.S. Citizenship Status -- Foreign-Born Population -- Naturalized U.S. Citizen
 S097 446    U.S. Citizenship Status -- Foreign-Born Population -- Not a U.S. Citizen
 S112 5528    Language Spoken at Home -- Population 5 Years and Over
 S113 3286    Language Spoken at Home -- Population 5 Years and Over -- English Only
 S114 2242    Language Spoken at Home -- Population 5 Years and Over -- Language Other Than English
 S115 830    Language Spoken at Home -- Population 5 Years and Over -- Language Other Than English -- Speak English Less Than Very Wel'
 S116551    Language Spoken at Home -- Population 5 Years and Over -- Language Other Than English -- Spanish
 S117220    Language Spoken at Home -- Population 5 Years and Over -- Language Other Than English -- Spanish -- Speak English Less Than Very Well
 S152 2118    Computers and Internet Use -- Total Households
 S153 2073    Computers and Internet Use -- Households with a Computer
 S154 2017    Computers and Internet Use -- Households with a Broadband Internet Subscription
 E001 4772    Employment Status -- Population 16 Years and Over
 E002 2695    Employment Status -- Population 16 Years and Over -- in Labor Force
 E003 2695    Employment Status -- Population 16 Years and Over -- Civilian Labor Force
 E004 2442    Employment Status -- Population 16 Years and Over -- Employed
 E005 253    Employment Status -- Population 16 Years and Over -- Unemployed
 E006 0    Employment Status -- Population 16 Years and Over -- Armed Forces
 E007 2077    Employment Status -- Population 16 Years and Over -- Not in Labor Force
 E008 2695    Employment Status -- Population 16 Years and Over -- Civilian Labor Force
 E009 9.4    Employment Status -- Population 16 Years and Over -- Percent Unemployed
 E026 2442    Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over
 E0271590    Occupation -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Management, business, science, and arts occupations
 E028180    Occupation -- Service occupations
 E029390    Occupation -- Sales and office occupations
 E030208    Occupation -- Natural resources, construction, and maintenance occupations
 E03174    Occupation -- Production, transportation, and material moving occupations
 E033 0    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Agriculture, Forestry, Fishing and Hunting, and Mining
 E034 152    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Construction
 E035 105    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Manufacturing
 E036 67    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Wholesale Trade
 E037 150    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Retail Trade
 E038 55    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Transportation and Warehousing, and Utilities
 E039 267    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Information
 E040 195    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Finance and Insurance, and Real Estate and Rental and Leasing
 E041 493    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Professional, Scientific, and Management, and Administrative and Waste Management Services
 E042 602    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Educational Services, and Health Care and Social Assistance
 E043 161    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Arts, Entertainment, and Recreation, and Accommodation and Food Services
 E044 120    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Other Services, Except Public Administration
 E045 75    Industry -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Public Administration
 E047 2071    Class of Worker -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Private Wage and Salary Workers
 E048 189    Class of Worker -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Government Workers
 E049 182    Class of Worker -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Self-Employed in Own Not Incorporated Business Workers
 E050 0    Class of Worker -- Civilian Employed Population 16 Years and Over -- Unpaid Family Workers
 E052 230    Total Households -- Income and Benefits -- Less Than $10,000
 E053 0    Total Households -- Income and Benefits -- $10,000 to $14,999
 E054 43    Total Households -- Income and Benefits -- $15,000 to $24,999
 E055 31    Total Households -- Income and Benefits -- $25,000 to $34,999
 E056 27    Total Households -- Income and Benefits -- $35,000 to $49,999
 E057 265    Total Households -- Income and Benefits -- $50,000 to $74,999
 E058 146    Total Households -- Income and Benefits -- $75,000 to $99,999
 E059 317    Total Households -- Income and Benefits -- $100,000 to $149,999
 E060 264    Total Households -- Income and Benefits -- $150,000 to $199,999
 E061 795    Total Households -- Income and Benefits -- $200,000 or More
 E062 147500    Median Household Income
 E063 209718    Mean Household Income
 E064 1652    Income and Benefits -- Households -- with Earnings
 E065 224327    Income and Benefits -- Households -- with Earnings -- Mean Earnings (Dollars)
 E066 836    Income and Benefits -- Households -- with Social Security
 E067 21345    Income and Benefits -- Households -- with Social Security -- Mean Social Security Income (Dollars)
 E068 420    Income and Benefits -- Households -- with Retirement Income
 E069 57338    Income and Benefits -- Households -- with Retirement Income -- Mean Retirement Income (Dollars)
 E070 113    Income and Benefits -- Households -- with Supplemental Security Income
 E071 -1    Income and Benefits -- Households -- with Supplemental Security Income -- Mean Supplemental Security Income (Dollars)
 E072 14    Income and Benefits -- Households -- with Cash Public Assistance Income
 E073 -1    Income and Benefits -- Households -- with Cash Public Assistance Income -- Mean Cash Public Assistance Income (Dollars)
 E074 65    Income and Benefits -- Households -- with Food Stamp/Snap Benefits in the Past 12 Months
 E075 1372    Income and Benefits -- Families
 E076 97    Income and Benefits -- Families -- Less Than $10,000
 E077 0    Income and Benefits -- Families -- $10,000 to $14,999
 E078 14    Income and Benefits -- Families -- $15,000 to $24,999
 E079 0    Income and Benefits -- Families -- $25,000 to $34,999
 E080 0    Income and Benefits -- Families -- $35,000 to $49,999
 E081 171    Income and Benefits -- Families -- $50,000 to $74,999
 E082 77    Income and Benefits -- Families -- $75,000 to $99,999
 E083 90    Income and Benefits -- Families -- $100,000 to $149,999
 E084 178    Income and Benefits -- Families -- $150,000 to $199,999
 E085 745    Income and Benefits -- Families -- $200,000 or More
 E086 222031    Median Family Income
 E087 272181    Mean Family Income
 E088 78931    Per Capita Income
 E089 746    Nonfamily Households
 E090 99405    Nonfamily Households -- Median Nonfamily Income
 E091 94041    Nonfamily Households -- Mean Nonfamily Income
 E092 65842    Median Earnings for Workers
 E093 106402    Median Earnings for Male Full-Time, Year-Round Workers
 E094 90938    Median Earnings for Female Full-Time, Year-Round Workers
 E095 5657    Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population
 E096 5359    Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population -- Health Insurance Coverage -- .... with Health Insurance Coverage
 E097 4584    Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population -- Health Insurance Coverage -- ...... with Private Health Insurance Coverage
 E098 1526    Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population -- Health Insurance Coverage -- ...... with Public Health Coverage
 E099 298    Civilian Noninstitutionalized Population -- Health Insurance Coverage -- .... No Health Insurance Coverage
 E1198.1    Percent Families whose income past 12 onths below poverty level
 E12813.5    Percent All People whose income past 12 onths below poverty level
 H001 2308    Total Housing Units
 H002 2118    Occupied Housing Units
 H003 190    Vacant Housing Units
 H004 2.1    Homeowner Vacancy Rate
 H005 0    Rental Vacancy Rate
 H007 1772    Total Housing Units -- Units in Structure -- 1-Unit, Detached
 H008 62    Total Housing Units -- Units in Structure -- 1-Unit, Attached
 H009 17    Total Housing Units -- Units in Structure -- 2 Units
 H010 0    Total Housing Units -- Units in Structure -- 3 or4 Units
 H011 47    Total Housing Units -- Units in Structure -- 5 to 9 Units
 H012 111    Total Housing Units -- Units in Structure -- 10 to 19 Units
 H013 299    Total Housing Units -- Units in Structure -- 20 or More Units
 H014 0    Total Housing Units -- Units in Structure -- Mobile Home
 H015 0    Total Housing Units -- Units in Structure -- Boat, Rv, Van, Etc.
 H017 2308    Total Housing Units -- Year Built -- 2020 or later
 H018 313    Total Housing Units -- Year Built -- 2010 to 2019
 H019 187    Total Housing Units -- Year Built -- 2000 to 2009
 H020 177    Total Housing Units -- Year Built -- 1990 to 1999
 H021 273    Total Housing Units -- Year Built -- 1980 to 1989
 H022 157    Total Housing Units -- Year Built -- 1970 to 1979
 H023 288    Total Housing Units -- Year Built -- 1960 to 1969
 H024 740    Total Housing Units -- Year Built -- 1950 to 1959
 H025 173    Total Housing Units -- Year Built -- 1940 to 1949
 H026 0    Total Housing Units -- Year Built -- 1939 or earlier
 H037 6.6    Total Housing Units -- Rooms -- Median Rooms
 H046 1595    Tenure -- Owner-Occupied
 H047 523    Tenure -- Renter-Occupied
 H048 2.76    Tenure -- Average Household Size of Owner-Occupied Unit
 H049 2.36    Tenure -- Average Household Size of Renter-Occupied Unit
 H051 254    Year Householder Moved into Unit -- 2019 or later
 H052 447    Year Householder Moved into Unit -- 2015 to 2018
 H053 337    Year Householder Moved into Unit -- 2010 to 2014
 H054 371    Year Householder Moved into Unit -- 2000 to 2009
 H055 282    Year Householder Moved into Unit -- 1990 to 1999
 H056 427    Year Householder Moved into Unit -- 1989 or earlier
 H058 103    Occupied housing units -- No Vehicles Available
 H059 498    Occupied housing units -- Vehicles Available -- 1 Vehicle Available
 H060 1050    Occupied housing units -- Vehicles Available -- 2 Vehicles Available
 H061 467    Occupied housing units -- Vehicles Available -- 3 or More Vehicles Available
 H063 1566    House Heating Fuel -- Utility Gas
 H064 34    House Heating Fuel -- Bottled, Tank, or LP Gas
 H065 505    House Heating Fuel -- Electricity
 H066 0    House Heating Fuel -- Fuel Oil, Kerosene, Etc.
 H067 0    House Heating Fuel -- Coal orCoke
 H068 0    House Heating Fuel -- Wood
 H069 13    House Heating Fuel -- Solar Energy
 H077 2096    Occupants per Room -- 1.00 or Less
 H078 0    Occupants per Room -- 1.01 to 1.50
 H079 22    Occupants per Room -- 1.51 or More
 H081 20    Value -- Less Than $50,000
 H082 14    Value -- $50,000 to $99,999
 H083 0    Value -- $100,000 to $149,999
 H084 0    Value -- $150,000 to $199,999
 H085 0    Value -- $200,000 to $299,999
 H086 43    Value -- $300,000 to $499,999
 H087 397    Value -- $500,000 to $999,999
 H088 1121    Value -- $1,000,000 or More
 H089 1359600    Median Housing Value
 H090 1595    Owner-Occupied Units
 H091 1043    Housing Units with a Mortgage
 H092 552    Housing Units Without a Mortgage
 H114109    Housing Units with a Mortgage -- housing cost to income ratio -- 30.0 to 34.9 percent (SMOCAPI)
 H115339    Housing Units with a Mortgage -- housing cost to income ratio -- 35.0 percent or more (SMOCAPI)
 H1230    Housing Units without a Mortgage -- housing cost to income ratio -- 30.0 to 34.9 percent (SMOCAPI)
 H12433    Housing Units without a Mortgage -- housing cost to income ratio -- 35.0 percent or more (SMOCAPI)
 H126 474    Occupied Units Paying Rent
 H127 0    Gross Rent -- Less Than $500
 H128 0    Gross Rent -- $500 to $999
 H129 0    Gross Rent -- $1,000 to $1,499
 H130 151    Gross Rent -- $1,500 to $1,999
 H131 54    Gross Rent -- $2,000 to $2,499
 H132 47    Gross Rent -- $2,500 to $2,999
 H133 222    Gross Rent -- $3,000 or More
 H134 2840    Median Rent
 H1410    Gross rent to household income ratio -- 30.0 to 34.9 percent (GRAPI)
 H142287    Gross rent to household income ratio -- 35.0 percent or more (GRAPI)

Illustrative Use: Examining Patterns of Income Inequality by Tract.. goto top
.. patterns of income inequality by tract; Los Angeles area .. based the Gini Index
.. a measure included in the S&O tracts database .. click graphic for larger view.


Using VDA Web GIS to Access & Analyze the Tract Demographics
.. patterns of economic prosperity by census tract .. based on median household income $MHI
.. a measure included in the S&O tracts database .. click graphic for larger view.


Create views like above; examine subject matter described in this section using the VDA Web GIS for any/all census tracts. See the VDA guide subsection for step-by-step details. The Visual Data Analytics (VDA) resources enable users to view/analyze these data in context with other geography and subject matter. These data are included in the Situation & Outlook project. There is nothing to install, use any Web browser. There is no cost to get underway and access/analyze these data.

ProximityOne User Group .. goto top
Join the ProximityOne User Group to keep up-to-date with new developments relating to metros and component geography decision-making information resources. Receive updates and access to tools and resources available only to members. Use this form to join the User Group.

Support Using these Resources.. goto top
Learn more about census tract demographic economic data and related analytical tools. Join us in a Data Analytics Lab session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants.

Additional Information.. goto top
> ProximityOne develops geographic-demographic-economic data and analytical tools and helps organizations knit together and use diverse data in a decision-making and analytical framework. We develop custom demographic/economic estimates and projections, develop geographic and geocoded address files, and assist with impact and geospatial analyses. Wide-ranging organizations use our tools (software, data, methodologies) to analyze their own data integrated with other data. Follow ProximityOne on Twitter at www.twitter.com/proximityone. Contact ProximityOne (888-364-7656) with questions about data covered in this section or to discuss custom estimates, projections or analyses for your areas of interest.


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