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Census Tract Demographic-Economic Estimates & Projections
  -- examine small area, subcounty change and how it may impact you

November 2019. Census tract demographics are used in wide-ranging public and private sector applications to examine patterns and characteristics of sub-county areas. Tract level data from Census 2000, Census 2010 and the American Community Survey (ACS) can be used to analyze trade/market areas, neighborhoods and other small area study areas. But what about more current data and trends since 2010? What about business establishment data and other subject matter not included in either the census or ACS data?

There are no current demographic-economic census tract data available from the Census Bureau or other Federal statistical programs. Annually released ACS 5-year estimates are available by census tract but are for 5-year periods and out-of-date. The most recent census tract level ACS data are based on the ACS 2017 5-year estimates (ACS 1317). Those data are not for the year 2017 but estimates for ACS survey respondents for the 5 year period 2013-2017; centric to mid-2015.

ProximityOne Census Tract Estimates & Projections
ProximityOne provides annual U.S. national scope census tract demographic-economic-business estimates and projections for the period 2010 through 2024 (2019 vintage). This section provides information about these estimates and projections. These census tract level data are part of the ProximityOne Situation & Outlook database and information system.

Annual census tract level estimates and projections are available for the period 2010 through 2024. "5-year projections" are updated and extended annually. For the 2019 vintage estimates and projections, the estimates are for 2010 through 2019. The projections are for the period 2020 through 2024. The 2020 vintage data (released in mid-2020) extend the projections by one year to 2025.

Tract estimates and projections subject matter are summarized below. These data are also available summarized to the county, metro/CBSA, state and U.S. national level.

Scope of Subject Matter - categories
Rooms in unit
Bedrooms in unit
Housing tenure
Year householder moved into unit
Vehicles available
House heating fuel
Selected housing unit characteristics
Occupants per room
Housing value (owner occupied units)
Mortgage status
Selected monthly owner costs
Gross rent (renter occupied units)
Citizenship status
Language spoken at home; linguistic isolation
Employment status
Employment by occupation
Employment by industry
Employment by class of worker
Income and benefits
Families and population in poverty
Housing units & occupancy
Year structure built
Units in structure
Geographic identification; relationship codes
Population and components of change
Citizen Voting Age Population
Age and gender
Households by type
Relationship within household
Marital status
School enrollment
Educational attainment
Place of birth

Tract Estimate & Projection Items -- scroll table
  -- fields included in database -- see notes below table

Create a list of items of interest by 1) checking checkboxes in above table, 2) click on any blue highlighted row then Ctrl-C (copy to clipboard), 3) Ctrl-V (paste) in preferred application such as Notepad, text editor, spreadsheet, etc. If interested in an Item Group (no item code in left column), just check those checkboxes.

To get a quote, paste your selections in an email and send it to us. Include the list of years (e.g., 2018-2024) and list of tracts. The tract list can be discrete tract codes (11-characters each) or more general descriptions like all tracts in California, all tracts intersecting with Columbus, OH, all tracts in the Dallas MSA, all tracts in the US, etc.

Item list in Excel file .. requires User Group userid .. join now (no fee).

Contact us with questions or call 888.364.7656.

There are 317 fields in each census tract record.
Each census tract record (73,056 records) is iterated for each year, 2010 through 2024.

Accessing & Using the Estimates and Projections
There are several ways the census tract demographic-economic estimates and projections may be accessed and used.

  • Data File License -- county, metro, state, U.S.
  • Integrated with CV XE GIS/Modeler Software -- geospatially analysis; data linkage
    .. ready-to-use GIS projects with integrated tract-county-metro-state- national estimates & projections
  • SiteReport -- create custom geographic area reports/analyses
  • HTML/XLS Reports -- structured reports for one or several tracts

Tract estimates and projections are developed using holistic, metro/county-centric, integrated demographic-economic-business models. We use a range of sub-county data to document change at the tract and sub-tract levels. These data include USPS delivery data; motor vehicle registrations; building permits, completions and occupancy data; housing sales; business establishment and attributes data and special developments that have or may have an impact on sub-county demographic-economic change.

As noted at the top of this section Census Bureau American Community Survey (ACS) estimates released annually for census tracts are 5-year estimates. This means the estimates are for a 5-year period, not estimates for that year. year to year 5-year ACS estimates are not intended to be comparable.

1. ProximityOne tract estimates and projections are annual data. They are estimates for that Calendar year or as of July 1 in that year. ProximityOne annual estimates and projections are intended for year to year comparisons.

2. We develop annual time series historical data used with models to develop current estimates and projections. The process/models use a population components of change and cohort-survival equations:
  P[i,a,t]=P[i,a,t-1] + B[i,a,t:t-1] - D[i,a,t:t-1] + M[i,a,t:t-1]
where P is population, B births, D deaths, M net migration, i tract, a age/race-origin cohort, t year

3. The number of housing units, households and vacant units are developed using a composite of data including our new construction, mail deliveries, and related data:
  H[i,a,t]=H[i,a,t-1] + HN[i,a,t:t-1] - HR[i,a,t:t-1]
where H is housing units, HN new units, HR units removed, i tract, a type of unit, t year
  a, units in structure: 1-unit, 2-units, 3-4 units, 5+ units

H[i,a,t] and P[i,a,t] are controlled to the county level.

4. Other items are developed using multi-equation time series models. A generic model specification is used and adjusted for different regions where, for example, different assumptions are used as well as cause and effect relationships. Where applicable, these items are also controlled to the county level estimates and projections.

About Census Tract Geography and Codes
  -- see more about census tracts here.

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Join the ProximityOne User Group to keep up-to-date with new developments relating to metros and component geography decision-making information resources. Receive updates and access to tools and resources available only to members. Use this form to join the User Group.

Support Using these Resources
Learn more about census tract demographic economic data and related analytical tools. Join us in a Data Analytics Lab session. There is no fee for these one-hour Web sessions. Each informal session is focused on a specific topic. The open structure also provides for Q&A and discussion of application issues of interest to participants.

Additional Information
ProximityOne develops geographic-demographic-economic data and analytical tools and helps organizations knit together and use diverse data in a decision-making and analytical framework. We develop custom demographic/economic estimates and projections, develop geographic and geocoded address files, and assist with impact and geospatial analyses. Wide-ranging organizations use our tools (software, data, methodologies) to analyze their own data integrated with other data. Follow ProximityOne on Twitter at Contact ProximityOne (888-364-7656) with questions about data covered in this section or to discuss custom estimates, projections or analyses for your areas of interest.

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