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State Population Estimates & Components of Change
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Visual analysis with ProximityOne tools
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Decision-Making Information Blog
Examining Neighborhood Change


New January 2014. State population dynamics are changing. Find out more about how states are changing and why. Based on the new 2013 population estimates and components of change, the population percent natural increase ranged from -0.55% (West Virginia) to 12.5% (Utah) during the period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013. This is one example of insights into the components of population change that can be determined using the interactive table in this section. Use the table to view, compare, rank state population estimates and components of change. More about these estimates.

Examining Components of Change Patterns
The next several thematic map views show patterns of population components of change by state. Labels show the average for the years 2011-2013. Click graphic for a larger map view that also shows legend. These views were developed using the CV XE GIS software and related GIS project. More about using these resources.

Scroll section ...
State Average Birth Rate; 2011-2013


State Average Death Rate; 2011-2013


State Average Natural Increase Rate; 2011-2013


State Average International Migration Rate; 2011-2013


State Average Domestic Migration Rate; 2011-2013


State Average Net Migration Rate; 2011-2013


State Population Percent Change 2010-2013

Visual Analysis using GIS Tools
Use the CV XE GIS state population estimates GIS project to create thematic pattern maps such as shown in the above graphic. Develop thematic pattern maps using any of the items included in the interactive table below. Members of the ProximityOne User Group (join now, no fee) may download the ready-to-use GIS project.

Use the interactive ranking table in this section to view, query, rank, compare annual population estimates and components of change. See description of items in scroll section below table.

State/Region/U.S. Population & Components of Change; 2010-2013 -- Interactive Table
  Click column header to sort; click again to sort other direction.
  Model-based estimates. See usage notes below table. See related Ranking Tables Main Page
  Click row to copy to clipboard

Usage Notes
  • Use buttons below table for column group selections.

Population & Components of Change Items
The scroll box shown below lists each of the subject matter items available for each area via the interactive table. The subject matter item name shown at the left and is also used as the short name for the subject matter item in the column header in the ranking table. The item name is also used as the field name in GIS applications.
NAME Area Name
STATE GeoID
SUMLEV Summary Level
REGION Region
DIVISION Division
CEN2010POP Census 2010 Population (4/1/2010)
POPEST10 7/1/2010 resident total population estimate
POPEST11 7/1/2011 resident total population estimate
POPEST12 7/1/2012 resident total population estimate
POPEST13 7/1/2013 resident total population estimate
NPOPCH10 Numeric change in resident total population 4/1/2010 to 7/1/2010
NPOPCH11 Numeric change in resident total population 7/1/2010 to 7/1/2011
NPOPCH12 Numeric change in resident total population 7/1/2011 to 7/1/2012
NPOPCH13 Numeric change in resident total population 7/1/2012 to 7/1/2013
BIRTHS10 Births in period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
BIRTHS11 Births in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
BIRTHS12 Births in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
BIRTHS13 Births in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
DEATHS10 Deaths in period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
DEATHS11 Deaths in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
DEATHS12 Deaths in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
DEATHS13 Deaths in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
NATINC10 Natural increase in period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
NATINC11 Natural increase in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
NATINC12 Natural increase in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
NATINC13 Natural increase in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
INTMIG10 Net international migration in period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
INTMIG11 Net international migration in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
INTMIG12 Net international migration in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
INTMIG13 Net international migration in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
DOMMIG10 Net domestic migration in period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
DOMMIG11 Net domestic migration in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
DOMMIG12 Net domestic migration in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
DOMMIG13 Net domestic migration in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
NETMIG10 Net migration in period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
NETMIG11 Net migration in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
NETMIG12 Net migration in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
NETMIG13 Net migration in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RESID10 Residual for period 4/1/2010 to 6/30/2010
RESID11 Residual for period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RESID12 Residual for period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RESID13 Residual for period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RBIRTH11 Birth rate in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RBIRTH12 Birth rate in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RBIRTH13 Birth rate in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RDEATH11 Death rate in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RDEATH12 Death rate in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RDEATH13 Death rate in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RNATINC11 Natural increase rate in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RNATINC12 Natural increase rate in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RNATINC13 Natural increase rate in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RINTMIG11 Net international migration rate in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RINTMIG12 Net international migration rate in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RINTMIG13 Net international migration rate in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RDOMMIG11 Net domestic migration rate in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RDOMMIG12 Net domestic migration rate in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RDOMMIG13 Net domestic migration rate in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013
RNETMIG11 Net migration rate in period 7/1/2010 to 6/30/2011
RNETMIG12 Net migration rate in period 7/1/2011 to 6/30/2012
RNETMIG13 Net migration rate in period 7/1/2012 to 6/30/2013

About the Estimates
Annual U.S. and state level population estimates and components of change are released in January of each year and provide estimates as of July 1 in the previous year. These estimates are subsequently used by the Census Bureau as "control totals" to develop national scope county level estimates for the same date later in the year. In January 2014, the state level estimates and components of change data were released for the most recent estimate of total resident population as of July 1, 2013, and so on in successive years.

These model-based estimates are important because they reflect the Census Bureau's best estimate of the actual population in these areas. They are also important because the estimates become an annual time series that can be used in yet other modeling, estimation and projection applications. As of now, post Census 2010 estimates are available annually for 2010 through 2013. These data are also important because they are the "control total" estimates for county and other sub-state estimates developed by the Census Bureau that become the basis for Federal funding and other resource allocation formulas.

The components of change data are equally important as they are mathematically connected to the derivation of the total population estimates. The population identity is used to the develop the total population estimates:

  P(2013) = P(2012) + B(2012) - D(2012) + IM(2012) +DM(2012)

where P is total population and B(births), D(deaths), IM(net international migration) and DM(net domestic migration) are the components of change. Components of change provide insights into why one the population in one state grows at a different rate compared to other states.

The model-based population estimates differ from the estimates developed from the American Community Survey ACS. Estimates from 2012 ACS reflect the population estimate based on survey respondents over the 2012 Calendar year. 2013 ACS 1-year estimates (tabulated for areas 65,000 population or more) will not be available until September 2014.

Additional Information
ProximityOne develops geodemographic-economic data and analytical tools and helps organizations knit together and use diverse data in a decision-making and analytical framework. We develop custom demographic/economic estimates and projections, develop geographic and geocoded address files, and assist with impact and geospatial analyses. Wide-ranging organizations use our tools (software, data, methodologies) to analyze their own data integrated with other data. Follow ProximityOne on Twitter at www.twitter.com/proximityone. Contact us (888-364-7656) with questions about data covered in this section or to discuss custom estimates, projections or analyses for your areas of interest.

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