County Population Estimates and Projections to 2060
June 2016. As a part of the Situation & Outlook (S&O) program, ProximityOne develops estimates and projections of the United States resident population by age, sex, race and Hispanic origin. The estimates and projections are based in part data from Census 2010, American Community Survey (ACS), Census model-based estimates, other Federal geographic and statistical data and data developed by ProximityOne. The estimates and projections are updated annually for the period 2010 through 2060. The S&O estimates and projections are produced using county-level models and are based on assumptions about future births, deaths and migration.
Estimates versus Projections
Population estimates are estimates of the population for a date on or before the current date. Population projections are projections of the population for a date into the future. For the 2016 vintage estimates and projections, estimates are for 2010 through 2015. Projections are for 2016 and later years. Estimates reflect known estimated values for births, deaths and migration. Projections reflect projected values for births, deaths and migration.
New estimated/projected values for births, deaths and migration are developed for each year. The potentially changing pattern, or behavior, of births, deaths and migration make it necessary to develop annually updated revised estimates and projections to most accurately reflect changing conditions. Neither the estimates or projections are observed facts. The estimates and projections reflect our best effort to most accurately determine these values at some point in time.
County Population Projections to 2060
This document is focused on S&O county estimates and projections to 2060. S&O estimates and projections are developed for many other geographies, on an annual basis, and for wide-ranging demographic-economic subject matter.
The "County 2010-2060 Estimates & Projections" subject matter include resident population for the following race/origin categories: total, White alone, Black alone, American Indian/Alaska Native alone, Asian alone, Native Hawaiian and other Pacific Islander alone, Some other race alone, Two or more races and Hispanic (total, of any race). The race/origin categories are consistent with the categories with Census 2010 subject matter tabulations.
S&O population estimates and projections are developed for individual counties. A generic model is used which is customizable for individual counties. For each county, the population is estimated/projected by single year of age (0-84 by year and 85 years and over) by gender by race/origin. These elemental (age, gender, race) estimates/projections are then aggregated for higher level summaries. For example, the total population is derived by summing the annual estimates and projections across by age by gender by race.
The S&O projections are produced using a cohort-component method beginning with an estimated base population for July 1, 2010. Components of population change (births, deaths and migration) are projected. For each subsequent year, the population is aged/advanced one year of age/ and the new age categories are updated using the projected survival rates and levels of net migration for that year. A new birth cohort is added to form the population under one year of age by applying projected age-specific fertility rates to the average female population aged 15 to 54 years and updating the new cohort for the effects of mortality and net migration.
Single year of age estimates and projections are adjusted for the group quarters population. Group quarters include college residence halls, residential treatment centers, skilled nursing facilities, group homes, military barracks, correctional facilities, and workers dormitories. The group quarters population is a part of the resident population. Age cohorts for many types of group quarters do not "age from year to year" like non-group quarters population. Annual group quarters population estimates and projections are integrated into the total resident population estimates and projections.
The assumptions for the components of change were based on time series analysis of historical trends and an assessment of likely future trends. Important elements include fertility rates, mortality rates, and migration. Separate county-level series are developed for births, deaths and migration. Age-gender-race/origin specific deaths are computed for each year. Separate county-level series are developed for international and domestic migration. Age-gender-race/origin specific migration is computed for each year.
There are no assumptions that local to national crises will occur. These estimates and projections reflect "mid-level", or most likely, demographic patterns. Alternative projections could be developed based on different assumptions, e.g., lower or higher migration. The impact of many county recent demographic-economic surges or downturns are adjusted for minimal long-term impact. Overall, the assumptions reflect trends since 2000 with migration trends more heavily weighted on more recent migration patterns -- on a county by county basis.
The S&O estimates and projections are independent of estimates and projections from other sources with exception of model-based estimates, For the 2016 vintage estimates and projection, the data values are the same as released by the Census Bureau for the period 2010 though 2015 -- for those categories made available by Census. Census does not release single year of age estimates whereas ProximityOne does develop single year of age estimates and projections. The Census Bureau has not prepared any sub-national projections that reflect Census 2010.
Regional Demographic-Economic Modeling System (RDEMS)
The ProximityOne Regional Demographic-Economic Modeling System (RDEMS) is the integrated software, models and database system used to develop the S&O estimates and projections. In the past, S&O referred to all related elements -- integrated software, models and database as well the estimates and projections. S&O now includes the estimates and projections as released quarterly and annually and interpretative analyses made using these data.
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ProximityOne develops geographic-demographic-economic data and analytical tools and helps organizations knit together and use diverse data in a decision-making and analytical framework. We develop custom demographic/economic estimates and projections, develop geographic and geocoded address files, and assist with impact and geospatial analyses. Wide-ranging organizations use our software, data and methodologies to analyze their own data integrated with other data. Follow ProximityOne on Twitter at www.twitter.com/proximityone. Contact ProximityOne (888-364-7656) with questions about data covered in this section or to discuss custom estimates, projections or analyses for your areas of interest.