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Census Sourced Model-Based Demographic Estimates

December 2019. In late December 2019, the Census Bureau releases the July 1, 2019 U.S. and state population estimates. In December 2020, just a year away, the April 1, 2020 U.S. and state first counts from Census 2020 are scheduled for release. See related details about the Census 2020 data release dates. This section is mainly focused on the annual cycle of Census Bureau "post census" (for now the 2010 post census) model-based population estimates.

The Census Bureau operates the population and housing unit estimates program to develop annual demographic estimates for counties, cities, metros, states and the U.S. These estimates are updated annually using model-based methods (as differentiated from statistical survey or administrative records data). This set of data is referred to here as Census model-based demographic estimates (MDE).

Importance of these data. These estimates are considered the official U.S. population estimates. These "post-censal" estimates are regarded by many as the most accurate population estimates available at the county level up. The data are used by Census in other Census Bureau statistical programs. Many Federal agencies and others use these data in the development of yet other measures, such as the BEA per capita personal income. The estimates also form a consistent annual time series, starting with last decennial census. The estimates become increasingly important over time, during the decade. Structured as a time series, they provide insights into trends, how and where the population is changing and why it is changing.

The MDE estimates follow a cycle that starts in December with national and state population estimates for July 1 of that year and concludes in June for demographic estimates for July 1 of the previous year. The cycle starts with the July 1, 2019 national and state estimates being released in December 2019. The Census Bureau produces many types of model-based estimates; estimates described here are not comprehensive.

ProximityOne uses these data to develop a curated database, integrated with other data. The curated database includes ProximityOne current estimates and projections.

Schedule of Related 2020 Updates .. go top
Subject MatterData Reference DateRelease Date
Census Bureau Annual Updates  
  National, State population & components of change /17/1/2019 12/2019
  Metro, County population & components of change
    2019 release date section & tables:
    • U.S. & State 2010-2018 interactive table
    • Metro Trends 2010-2018 interactive table
    • County Trends 2010-2018 interactive table
  City and town (incorporated place and minor civil division) population
    2019 release date section & tables:
    • Place Trends 2010-2018 interactive table
  National, State, and County housing units
    • Housing Unit Trends 2010-2018 interactive table
  National population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin7/1/20196/2020
  State population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin7/1/20196/2020
  County population by age, sex, race, and Hispanic origin7/1/20196/2020
ProximityOne Current Estimates & Projections  
  Census Tract, County, Metro, State, U.S. Demographic-EconomicAnnual 2010-20256/2020
  County, Metro, State, U.S. Population Single Year of AgeAnnual 2010-20606/2020
  /1 .. data used in this section

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Additional Information
ProximityOne develops geodemographic-economic data and analytical tools and helps organizations knit together and use diverse data in a decision-making and analytical framework. We develop custom demographic/economic estimates and projections, develop geographic and geocoded address files, and assist with impact and geospatial analyses. Wide-ranging organizations use our tools (software, data, methodologies) to analyze their own data integrated with other data. Follow ProximityOne on Twitter at Contact us (888-364-7656) with questions about data covered in this section or to discuss custom estimates, projections or analyses for your areas of interest.

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