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How & Why K-12 Schools Are Changing
  -- annual enrollment by grade projections to 2022-23
  -- for each of the U.S. approximate 100,000 K-12 public schools

Examine how enrollment by grade is changing year to year in K-12 schools of interest using ProximityOne 5-year enrollment projections. The ProximityOne K-12 Schools Enrollment Projections program is described in this section. Annual enrollment by grade data are included for the period 2013-14 to 2022-23 for each K-12 public school. Developed on a state-by-state basis, the national scope 2022-23 school enrollment projections will be available in August 2018; many states earlier. Contact us (mention SCH2023 in text section) or call 888.364.7656 for more information and acquire school by grade enrollment time series/projections. Projections are extended annually; new 2023-24 projections are scheduled for mid-2019.

See illustrative reports below in this section.

K-12 Schools Enrollment Projections (SCH2023) Components:
  • SCH2023 database containing the enrollment data by school
  • SCH2023 shapefile for use with GIS applications
  • K-12 schools report and analyses .. view illustrative reports below
  • integrated mapping and geospatial analysis using SDGIS tools

Patterns of Enrollment Change by School
Markers in the graphic below, locations of schools, show patterns of percent chnage in total enrollment during the period 2013-14 to 2017-18 for the northern area in the Dallas metro. Frisco ISD school district is shown with the blue cross-hatch pattern. Click graphic for larger view with details.

- view developed using CV XE GIS software and associated GIS project.

Part of the power of using the school projections is that school enrollments change can be examined across/independent of school district boundaries. Some may also want to examine only schools in a particular school district. The next graphic is a zoom-in to the view shown above.

Zoom-in to Frisco ISD, TX School District
The graphic below shows patterns of housing units change from 2010 to 2017 for the 382 Metropolitan Statistical Areas Markers in the graphic below, locations of schools, show patterns of percent change in total enrollment during the period 2013-14 to 2017-18 for the northern area in the Dallas metro. Frisco ISD school district is shown with the blue cross-hatch pattern.

- view developed using CV XE GIS software and associated GIS project.

CV XE GIS K-12 Schools Component
The SCH2023 database is developed and maintained with the CV XE GIS K-12 Schools Component shown in the graphic below. Click graphic for larger view with details.


Development and maintenance features of the K-12 Schools Component is presently internal to ProximityOne. SCH2023 data access, reporting and analytical operations are available to licensed users.

Illustrative Reports
Examples of school/school group projection/trend reports are shown below.
- click a link shown below opening a new/master page for that school group.
- school groups may be a set of schools in a district, county or other area based on a query
- the query used to select the schools (for example a single school district or county) is shown on the master page
- the master page shows a list of all schools in the group
    .. schools with under 10 students are omitted in these examples
- the master page shows a row for each school in the group.
    .. total enrollment is shown across the columns by year
- click a school link in the master page to view the detailed enrollment by grade for that school.
- in the school report, click the LEA code link to return to the master table
- data are for illustrative use only and may differ from current vintage projections
Missouri
  • Jackson County, MO schools
    .. illustrates selecting all schools in a county, irrespective of school district
  • Kansas City School District, MO schools
Texas
  • Frisco ISD, TX schools
  • Clear Creek ISD, TX schools
Virginia
  • Alexandria City Public Schools, VA schools
  • Fairfax County Public Schools, VA schools

Terms of Use
Data shown in this section, or via links to related pages, are for personal use only. We encourage use links to this section or specific school pages. Data are not authorized for any business or fee-based use. Licensed users may access the current vintage data. There is no warranty of any type for any use made of these data. The user is solely responsible for any use made of these data.

Methodology
School projections are developed using a modified age/grade-cohort generic model for each school. The model is adapted for individual schools to reflect unique characteristics of that school and location. The model uses a historical time series based on the NCES Common Core of Data (CCD). The historical CCD data are examined and updated as new information becomes available about those data. The historical CCD data are augmented typically with two years of more recent data collected from individual schools, LEAs and other education agencies ... an ongoing process.

Each school is coded with census block, block group and census tract. We know the census block/tract in which the school is located. The school model takes into account the demographic-economic change in the census tracts associated with the school location. See more about census tract projections. Progressively, we integrate census tract and school cause and effect relationships to jointly determine school/tract demographics. Conditions affecting the school attendance cachement area demographics, such as housing and new residential construction are determned in this way.

Where applicable/possible the model examines/integrates:
  • demographic change is the associated school attendance zone (SAZ)
  • change in other K-12 schools, charter schools and private schools in the area
  • feeder patterns

Database Subject Matter Fields
Data fields in the SCH2023 database are summarized in the scroll section below.
  FieldName   FieldType   FieldDesc
  NAME   C80   School Name
  ADDRESS   C60   School Address
  CITY   C30   City
  STAB   C2   USPS State
  ZIP   C5   ZIP Code
  ZIP4   C4   ZIP4 Code
  LEAID   C7   Federal Local Educstion Agency (LEA) code
  LEAID_ST   C14   State LEA code
  SCHID   C12   Federal school code
  SCHID_ST   C20   State school code
  FOOTNOTE   C20   Link to footnote about this school
  STCTY   C5   State+County FIPS Code
  BLOCKCODE   C12   Census 2010 block code
  PHONE   C12   Telephone number
  UNION   C3   Union code
  SCHTYPE   C1   School Type
  1 Regular school
  2 Special education school
  3 Vocational school
  4 Other/alternative school
  GSLO   C2   Low Grade
  GSHI   C2   High Grade
  LEVEL   C1   School Level
  1 Primary (low grade = PK through 03; high grade = PK through 08)
  2 Middle (low grade = 04 through 07; high grade = 04 through 09)
  3 High (low grade = 07 through 12; high grade = 12 only)
  4 Other (grade configuration not within above categories, including ungraded)
  N Not applicable
  VIRTUAL   C1   Virtual status
  BIES   C1   BIA status
  STATUS   C1   Projection status
  CHARTER   C1   Charter school indicator
  LATITUDE   N12.6   School Latitude
  LONGITUDE   N12.6   School longitude
  ENRL1314   N5   Total enrollment SY 2013-14
  EPK1314   N4   Enrollment grade PK SY 2013-14
  EKG1314   N3   Enrollment grade KG SY 2013-14
  E011314   N3   Enrollment grade 01 SY 2013-14
  E021314   N3   Enrollment grade 02 SY 2013-14
  E031314   N3   Enrollment grade 03 SY 2013-14
  E041314   N3   Enrollment grade 04 SY 2013-14
  E051314   N4   Enrollment grade 05 SY 2013-14
  E061314   N4   Enrollment grade 06 SY 2013-14
  E071314   N4   Enrollment grade 07 SY 2013-14
  E081314   N4   Enrollment grade 08 SY 2013-14
  E091314   N4   Enrollment grade 09 SY 2013-14
  E101314   N4   Enrollment grade 10 SY 2013-14
  E111314   N4   Enrollment grade 11 SY 2013-14
  E121314   N4   Enrollment grade 12 SY 2013-14
  EUG1314   N4   Enrollment grade UG SY 2013-14
  ENRL1415   N5   Total enrollment SY 2014-15
  EPK1415   N4   Enrollment grade PK SY 2014-15
  EKG1415   N3   Enrollment grade KG SY 2014-15
  E011415   N3   Enrollment grade 01 SY 2014-15
  E021415   N3   Enrollment grade 02 SY 2014-15
  E031415   N3   Enrollment grade 03 SY 2014-15
  E041415   N3   Enrollment grade 04 SY 2014-15
  E051415   N4   Enrollment grade 05 SY 2014-15
  E061415   N4   Enrollment grade 06 SY 2014-15
  E071415   N4   Enrollment grade 07 SY 2014-15
  E081415   N4   Enrollment grade 08 SY 2014-15
  E091415   N4   Enrollment grade 09 SY 2014-15
  E101415   N4   Enrollment grade 10 SY 2014-15
  E111415   N4   Enrollment grade 11 SY 2014-15
  E121415   N4   Enrollment grade 12 SY 2014-15
  EUG1415   N4   Enrollment grade UG SY 2014-15
  ENRL1516   N8   Total enrollment SY 2015-16
  EPK1516   N8   Enrollment grade PK SY 2015-16
  EKG1516   N8   Enrollment grade KG SY 2015-16
  E011516   N8   Enrollment grade 01 SY 2015-16
  E021516   N8   Enrollment grade 02 SY 2015-16
  E031516   N8   Enrollment grade 03 SY 2015-16
  E041516   N8   Enrollment grade 04 SY 2015-16
  E051516   N8   Enrollment grade 05 SY 2015-16
  E061516   N8   Enrollment grade 06 SY 2015-16
  E071516   N8   Enrollment grade 07 SY 2015-16
  E081516   N8   Enrollment grade 08 SY 2015-16
  E091516   N8   Enrollment grade 09 SY 2015-16
  E101516   N8   Enrollment grade 10 SY 2015-16
  E111516   N8   Enrollment grade 11 SY 2015-16
  E121516   N8   Enrollment grade 12 SY 2015-16
  EUG1516   N8   Enrollment grade UG SY 2015-16
  ENRL1617   N8   Total enrollment SY 2016-17
  EPK1617   N8   Enrollment grade PK SY 2016-17
  EKG1617   N8   Enrollment grade KG SY 2016-17
  E011617   N8   Enrollment grade 01 SY 2016-17
  E021617   N8   Enrollment grade 02 SY 2016-17
  E031617   N8   Enrollment grade 03 SY 2016-17
  E041617   N8   Enrollment grade 04 SY 2016-17
  E051617   N8   Enrollment grade 05 SY 2016-17
  E061617   N8   Enrollment grade 06 SY 2016-17
  E071617   N8   Enrollment grade 07 SY 2016-17
  E081617   N8   Enrollment grade 08 SY 2016-17
  E091617   N8   Enrollment grade 09 SY 2016-17
  E101617   N8   Enrollment grade 10 SY 2016-17
  E111617   N8   Enrollment grade 11 SY 2016-17
  E121617   N8   Enrollment grade 12 SY 2016-17
  EUG1617   N8   Enrollment grade UG SY 2016-17
  ENRL1718   N8   Total enrollment SY 2017-18
  EPK1718   N8   Enrollment grade PK SY 2017-18
  EKG1718   N8   Enrollment grade KG SY 2017-18
  E011718   N8   Enrollment grade 01 SY 2017-18
  E021718   N8   Enrollment grade 02 SY 2017-18
  E031718   N8   Enrollment grade 03 SY 2017-18
  E041718   N8   Enrollment grade 04 SY 2017-18
  E051718   N8   Enrollment grade 05 SY 2017-18
  E061718   N8   Enrollment grade 06 SY 2017-18
  E071718   N8   Enrollment grade 07 SY 2017-18
  E081718   N8   Enrollment grade 08 SY 2017-18
  E091718   N8   Enrollment grade 09 SY 2017-18
  E101718   N8   Enrollment grade 10 SY 2017-18
  E111718   N8   Enrollment grade 11 SY 2017-18
  E121718   N8   Enrollment grade 12 SY 2017-18
  EUG1718   N8   Enrollment grade UG SY 2017-18
  ENRL1819   N8   Total enrollment SY 2018-19
  EPK1819   N8   Enrollment grade PK SY 2018-19
  EKG1819   N8   Enrollment grade KG SY 2018-19
  E011819   N8   Enrollment grade 01 SY 2018-19
  E021819   N8   Enrollment grade 02 SY 2018-19
  E031819   N8   Enrollment grade 03 SY 2018-19
  E041819   N8   Enrollment grade 04 SY 2018-19
  E051819   N8   Enrollment grade 05 SY 2018-19
  E061819   N8   Enrollment grade 06 SY 2018-19
  E071819   N8   Enrollment grade 07 SY 2018-19
  E081819   N8   Enrollment grade 08 SY 2018-19
  E091819   N8   Enrollment grade 09 SY 2018-19
  E101819   N8   Enrollment grade 10 SY 2018-19
  E111819   N8   Enrollment grade 11 SY 2018-19
  E121819   N8   Enrollment grade 12 SY 2018-19
  EUG1819   N8   Enrollment grade UG SY 2018-19
  ENRL1920   N8   Total enrollment SY 2019-20
  EPK1920   N8   Enrollment grade PK SY 2019-20
  EKG1920   N8   Enrollment grade KG SY 2019-20
  E011920   N8   Enrollment grade 01 SY 2019-20
  E021920   N8   Enrollment grade 02 SY 2019-20
  E031920   N8   Enrollment grade 03 SY 2019-20
  E041920   N8   Enrollment grade 04 SY 2019-20
  E051920   N8   Enrollment grade 05 SY 2019-20
  E061920   N8   Enrollment grade 06 SY 2019-20
  E071920   N8   Enrollment grade 07 SY 2019-20
  E081920   N8   Enrollment grade 08 SY 2019-20
  E091920   N8   Enrollment grade 09 SY 2019-20
  E101920   N8   Enrollment grade 10 SY 2019-20
  E111920   N8   Enrollment grade 11 SY 2019-20
  E121920   N8   Enrollment grade 12 SY 2019-20
  EUG1920   N8   Enrollment grade UG SY 2019-20
  ENRL2021   N8   Total enrollment SY 2020-21
  EPK2021   N8   Enrollment grade PK SY 2020-21
  EKG2021   N8   Enrollment grade KG SY 2020-21
  E012021   N8   Enrollment grade 01 SY 2020-21
  E022021   N8   Enrollment grade 02 SY 2020-21
  E032021   N8   Enrollment grade 03 SY 2020-21
  E042021   N8   Enrollment grade 04 SY 2020-21
  E052021   N8   Enrollment grade 05 SY 2020-21
  E062021   N8   Enrollment grade 06 SY 2020-21
  E072021   N8   Enrollment grade 07 SY 2020-21
  E082021   N8   Enrollment grade 08 SY 2020-21
  E092021   N8   Enrollment grade 09 SY 2020-21
  E102021   N8   Enrollment grade 10 SY 2020-21
  E112021   N8   Enrollment grade 11 SY 2020-21
  E122021   N8   Enrollment grade 12 SY 2020-21
  EUG2021   N8   Enrollment grade UG SY 2020-21
  ENRL2122   N8   Total enrollment SY 2021-22
  EPK2122   N8   Enrollment grade PK SY 2021-22
  EKG2122   N8   Enrollment grade KG SY 2021-22
  E012122   N8   Enrollment grade 01 SY 2021-22
  E022122   N8   Enrollment grade 02 SY 2021-22
  E032122   N8   Enrollment grade 03 SY 2021-22
  E042122   N8   Enrollment grade 04 SY 2021-22
  E052122   N8   Enrollment grade 05 SY 2021-22
  E062122   N8   Enrollment grade 06 SY 2021-22
  E072122   N8   Enrollment grade 07 SY 2021-22
  E082122   N8   Enrollment grade 08 SY 2021-22
  E092122   N8   Enrollment grade 09 SY 2021-22
  E102122   N8   Enrollment grade 10 SY 2021-22
  E112122   N8   Enrollment grade 11 SY 2021-22
  E122122   N8   Enrollment grade 12 SY 2021-22
  EUG2122   N8   Enrollment grade UG SY 2021-22
  ENRL2223   N8   Total enrollment SY 2022-23
  EPK2223   N8   Enrollment grade PK SY 2022-23
  EKG2223   N8   Enrollment grade KG SY 2022-23
  E012223   N8   Enrollment grade 01 SY 2022-23
  E022223   N8   Enrollment grade 02 SY 2022-23
  E032223   N8   Enrollment grade 03 SY 2022-23
  E042223   N8   Enrollment grade 04 SY 2022-23
  E052223   N8   Enrollment grade 05 SY 2022-23
  E062223   N8   Enrollment grade 06 SY 2022-23
  E072223   N8   Enrollment grade 07 SY 2022-23
  E082223   N8   Enrollment grade 08 SY 2022-23
  E092223   N8   Enrollment grade 09 SY 2022-23
  E102223   N8   Enrollment grade 10 SY 2022-23
  E112223   N8   Enrollment grade 11 SY 2022-23
  E122223   N8   Enrollment grade 12 SY 2022-23
  EUG2223   N8   Enrollment grade UG SY 2022-23

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ProximityOne develops geographic-demographic-economic data and analytical tools and helps organizations knit together and use diverse data in a decision-making and analytical framework. We develop custom demographic/economic estimates and projections, develop geographic and geocoded address files, and assist with impact and geospatial analyses. Wide-ranging organizations use our software, data and methodologies to analyze their own data integrated with other data. Follow ProximityOne on Twitter at www.twitter.com/proximityone. Contact ProximityOne (888-364-7656) with questions about data covered in this section or to discuss custom estimates, projections or analyses for your areas of interest.



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